Construction and validation of a predictive model for early acute kidney injury in patients with cardiac arrest after cardiopulmonary resuscitation
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1671-0282.2025.01.004
- VernacularTitle:心脏骤停复苏后早期发生急性肾损伤预测模型构建及验证
- Author:
Jinxiang WANG
1
;
Luogang HUA
;
Muming YU
;
Lijun WANG
;
Heng JIN
;
Guowu XU
Author Information
1. 天津医科大学总医院急诊医学科，天津 300052
- Keywords:
Cardiac arrest;
Cardiopulmonary resuscitation;
Acute kidney injury;
Nomogram;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine
2025;34(1):17-24
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cardiac arrest (CA) after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and to verify its validity for early prediction.Methods:The study retrospectively included patients aged 18 years and older who received CPR for CA and were admitted to the emergency room of Tianjin Medical University General Hospital from February 2016 to September 2023. The general information, underlying diseases, resuscitation related indicators, and first laboratory test results of patients were collected. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups at a ratio of 7:3. AKI diagnosis was based on the diagnostic criteria of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest, and a nomogram was constructed on the basis of the independent risk factors. The predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve were used to evaluate the model. Bootstrap and cross validation methods were used for internal validation.Results:A total of 527 patients with cardiac arrest were included in the study, 230 patients developed AKI, with an AKI incidence of 43.6%. There was no statistically significant difference in clinical baseline data between the training and validation groups (all P>0.05), indicating comparability between the two groups of data. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that age ( OR=1.346, 95% CI: 1.197-1.543, P<0.001), CA to CPR time ( OR=2.214, 95% CI: 1.512-3.409, P=0.016), adrenaline dosage ( OR=1.921, 95% CI: 1.383-2.783, P=0.004), APACHE-Ⅱ score ( OR=1.531, 95% CI: 1.316-1.820, P<0.001), baseline creatinine ( OR=1.137, 95% CI: 1.090-1.196, P<0.001), and lactate ( OR=2.558, 95% CI: 1.680-4.167, P<0.001) were the independent risk factors for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest. Initial defibrillable rhythm ( OR=0.214, 95% CI: 0.051-0.759, P=0.023) was a protective factor for AKI in patients with cardiac arrest. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the above variables. The AUC of the training group was 0.943 (95% CI: 0.921-0.965) and that of the validation group was 0.917 (95% CI: 0.874-0.960). This prediction model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability. Conclusions:A nomogram predictive model was constructed on the basis of age, CA to CPR time, initial defibrillable rhythm, adrenaline dosage, the APACHE-Ⅱ score, and baseline creatinine and lactate levels. This nomogram has good predictive value for the early occurrence of AKI in patients with cardiac arrest after cardiopulmonary resuscitation, which can provide new strategies for the early identification of AKI and precise intervention.
