Individualized prediction scheme for sepsis patients with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury
- VernacularTitle:脓毒症患者合并中重度急性胃肠损伤的个体化预测方案
- Author:
Ningning SUN
1
;
Qian CHEN
Author Information
- Keywords: clinical characteristics; sepsis; acute gastrointestinal injury; nomogram; me-chanical ventilation; multiple organ dysfunction syndrome; prediction model; random forest
- From: Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice 2025;29(17):49-58
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To explore an individualized prediction scheme for sepsis patients with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury based on clinical characteristics.Methods A retro-spective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 316 sepsis patients admitted to Henan Tradi-tional Chinese Medicine Hospital from August 2021 to August 2024,and they were designated as ob-servation group.According to the occurrence of moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury during hospitalization,patients in the observation group were divided into complication group(n=165)and non-complication group(n=151).Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the in-fluencing factors for sepsis patients with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury.An individu-alized nomogram prediction model was constructed,and its predictive efficacy was internally validated.Additionally,the clinical data of 158 sepsis patients admitted to our hospital from January 2020 to July 2021 were retrospectively analyzed and used as external validation group to externally validate the nomogram model.A random forest prediction model was constructed using the data from the ob-servation group,and its predictive efficacy was evaluated using the data from the external validation group.Results The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that mechanical ven-tilation(OR=2.472),multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS)(OR=4.023),high Se-quential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score at admission(OR=3.083),high Acute Physiol-ogy and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)score(OR=2.835),high white blood cell(WBC)count(OR=1.610),high blood lactate level(OR=1.893),high C-reactive protein(CRP)level(OR=2.036),high D-lactate level(OR=2.620),high endotoxin level(OR=3.834),high diamine oxidase(DAO)level(OR=3.916),high intestinal fatty acid-binding pro-tein(I-FABP)level(OR=4.175),and high intra-abdominal pressure(OR=3.511)were all risk factors for sepsis with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury(P＜0.05).High levels of glucagon-like peptide-2(GLP-2)(OR=0.825),high gastric motility index(MI)(OR=0.485),and high superior mesenteric artery end-diastolic velocity(VPd)(OR=0.559)at admis-sion were all protective factors(P＜0.05).Based on the above factors,a nomogram prediction model for sepsis with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury was constructed.After internal and external validation,the concordance indices were 0.862 and 0.858,respectively,and the cali-bration curves closely fitted the ideal curves.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed thatthe sensitivity,specificity,and area under the curve(AUC)of the model's predictions were 88.48％,86.09％,0.889 and 87.50％,85.90％,0.884,respectively.The decision analy-sis curve showed that the model had a high net benefit when the threshold probability was in the ran-ges of 0.25-0.94 and 0.31-0.98.According to the ranking based on the average decrease in Gi-ni index in the random forest prediction model,MODS,SOFA score,I-FABP,DAO,and endotoxin were the top five indicators,which had a significant impact on the prediction of moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury.The ROC curve assessment showed that the sensitivity,specificity,and AUC of the random forest prediction model were 78.75％,83.33％,and 0.816,respectively.The sensitivity and AUC of the individualized nomogram model for predicting sepsis with moderate to se-vere acute gastrointestinal injury were higher than those of the random forest prediction model,and their specificities were basically equivalent.Conclusion Mechanical ventilation,MODS,and SOFA score,APACHE Ⅱ score,WBC count,blood lactate,CRP,GLP-2,D-lactate,endotoxin,DAO,I-FABP,intra-abdominal pressure,MI,and VPd at admission are all influencing factors for sepsis with moderate to severe acute gastrointestinal injury.The constructed individualized nomo-gram prediction model has important guiding value for guiding the early clinical screening of high-risk patients and the timely formulation of appropriate intervention plans.
