Change trend of chronic kidney disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction in its occurrence
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国慢性肾脏病疾病负担变化趋势及发病预测分析
- Author:
Shuaibo BIAN
1
;
Liang ZHANG
;
Xuan YANG
Author Information
- Keywords: chronic kidney disease; disease burden; disability-adjusted life years; mortality rate; prevalence rate; trend analysis; glomerulonephritis; hypertensive nephropathy
- From: Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice 2025;29(6):89-93,98
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends and changes in the burden of chronic kidney dis-ease(CKD)in China from 1990 to 2021.Methods Data related to the burden of CKD in China from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Study public database were downloaded.Descriptive analyses were conducted using indicators such as age-standardized incidence rates,mortality rates,years of life lost(YLL)rates,years lived with disability(YLD)rates,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates.The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in CKD.The Nordpred model was used to predict the standardized mortality rates,prevalence rates,and inci-dence rates of CKD in China over the next 20 years.Results The age-standardized incidence rate of CKD in China increased from 147.29 per 100,000 in 1990 to 163.74 per 100,000 in 2021,while the age-standardized prevalence rates,mortality rates,YLL rates,YLD rates,and DALY rates all ex-hibited downward trends.The incidence and prevalence of CKD were higher in Chinese women than in men,while mortality rates and DALY rates were lower in women than in men.The burden of CKD increased with age.It is estimated that by 2045,the incidence and prevalence of CKD in China will continue to rise,but the standardized mortality rate and standardized prevalence rate will decline.Conclusion Based on the current status and trends in the burden of CKD in China,implementing precise health management for different populations can help reduce the burden of CKD in China.
