Analysis of factors influencing prolonged length of hospital stay after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and construction of its prediction model
10.3969/j.issn.1008-794X.2025.04.015
- VernacularTitle:经颈静脉肝内门体分流术后住院时间延长影响因素分析及预测模型的构建
- Author:
Zhaorong WU
1
;
Qian WANG
;
Qin YIN
;
Tian TIAN
;
Han SONG
;
Jiangqiang XIAO
;
Wen LI
Author Information
1. 210000 江苏南京 南京中医药大学
- Keywords:
esophagogastric varix;
transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt;
postoperative hospital stay;
risk factor;
nomogram;
prediction model
- From:
Journal of Interventional Radiology
2025;34(4):418-424
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors influencing the prolonged length of hospital stay after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)in patients with ruptured esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 215 patients with EGVB,who received TIPS at a certain grade ⅢA hospital in Nanjing of China from January 1,2020 to January 30,2023,were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether the postoperative hospitalization stay was prolonged or not,the patients were divided into prolonged group(n=67)and normal group(n=148).Multivariate logistic regression analysis was sued to analyze the independent risk factors for prolonged postoperative hospitalization stay,and the risk factors were used as predictors for constructing the nomogram model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that history of splenectomy,early TIPS performance,NRS 2002 Nutritional Risk Screening Score ≥3 points,and Barthel index score≤40 points were the independent risk factors for prolonged postoperative hospitalization stay in patients with cirrhotic EGVB after receiving TIPS(P＜0.05).The area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the model constructed on the basis of independent risk factors was 0.743,which was higher than that of early TIPS performance,history of splenectomy,NRS 2002 score,and Barthel index score.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test obtained P=0.723,indicating that this model had a good fit degree.Conclusion The prediction model established in this study can be used for cirrhotic EGVB patients to predict the risk of prolonged postoperative hospitalization stay,and this model has good discrimination and calibration,besides,it can bring some clinical benefits to patients.
