Risk factor analysis and nomogram prediction model construction for pneumonia complicating infectious mononucleosis in adults
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.1110.2025.0212
- VernacularTitle:成人传染性单核细胞增多症并发肺炎的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Fei HU
1
;
Mei-Juan PENG
;
Xu-Yang ZHENG
;
Rui LI
;
Jia-Yi ZHAN
;
Hai-Feng HU
;
Hong-Kai XU
;
Deng-Hui YU
;
Hong DU
;
Jian-Qi LIAN
Author Information
1. 空军军医大学第二附属医院传染科,陕西 西安 710038
- Keywords:
Epstein-Barr virus;
infectious mononucleosis;
clinical features;
pneumonia;
risk factors;
nomogram model
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2025;50(11):1359-1365
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors for pneumonia complicating infectious mononucleosis(IM)in adults and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 198 IM patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from January 2015 to December 2021.Patients were divided into pneumonia group(n=52)and non-pneumonia group(n=146)based on whether pulmonary infection occurred during hospitalization.The baseline data(age,gender,place of onset,etc.),clinical manifestations(maximum body temperature,lymph node enlargement,splenomegaly,etc.),and inflammatory indicators[white blood cell count(WBC),C-reactive protein(CRP),etc.]were compared between the two groups.Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to analyze the key indicators affecting the hospital stay of IM patients.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for pneumonia complicating IM in adults and construct a nomogram prediction model based on the identified risk factors.The predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the consistency of the model was assessed using the calibration curve.The fit of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Additionally,the sensitivity,specificity,and accuracy of the model were assessed using confusion matrix.Results Compared with non-pneumonia group,the pneumonia group had a significantly higher proportion of patients from rural areas,with body mass index(BMI)≥24 kg/m2,smoking history,hepatomegaly,fever duration of≥7 d,as well as increased total hospitalization costs and average daily hospitalization costs,and prolonged hospital stay(P<0.05).The proportion of patients with a history of antibiotic use was lower in the pneumonia group(P<0.05).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients from rural areas,with BMI≥24 kg/m2,smoking history,no prophylactic use of antibiotics,fever duration≥7 d,and hepatomegaly had significantly prolonged hospital stays(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that living in a rural area(OR=4.089,P<0.05),hepatomegaly(OR=4.082,P<0.05),and elevated WBC(OR=1.205,P<0.05)were independent risk factors for pneumonia complicating IM in adults,while the prophylactic use of antibiotics(OR=0.142,P<0.05)was an independent protective factor.The area under the ROC curve of the constructed nomogram prediction model was 0.827(95%CI 0.762-0.892),and the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=5.299,P=0.725,indicating good consistency and fit of the prediction model.The results of the confusion matrix assessment showed that the sensitivity of the model was 0.669(0.624-0.773),the specificity was 0.827(0.724-0.930),and the accuracy was 0.732(0.665-0.793).Conclusion The nomogram prediction model based on place of onset,hepatomegaly,the prophylactic use of antibiotics and WBC has excellent fit and discrimination,providing an effective quantitative tool for prognosis assessment of IM.
