Establishment and evaluation of a predictive model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.0441.2024.1114
- VernacularTitle:HBV相关原发性肝癌并发自发性腹膜炎预测模型的建立与评价
- Author:
Hong-Yan WEI
1
;
Yong-Zhen CHEN
;
Ren-Hai TIAN
;
Li-Xian CHANG
;
Ying-Yuan ZHANG
;
Dan-Qing XU
;
Chun-Yun LIU
;
Li LIU
Author Information
1. 昆明市第三人民医院肝病免疫科/云南省传染病临床医学中心,云南 昆明 650041;大理大学公共卫生学院,云南大理 671000
- Keywords:
chronic hepatitis B;
primary liver cancer;
spontaneous peritonitis;
nomogram
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2025;50(8):949-957
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish and evaluate a nomogram prediction model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 1298 patients with HBV-related primary liver cancer hospitalized in the Kunming Third People's Hospital from January 2012 to December 2022.General data and serological indicators were collected,and patients were divided into infection group(n=262)and control group(n=1036)based on the occurrence of spontaneous peritonitis.Univariate and LASSO regression analyses were used to screen variables,followed by binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors of spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients,leading to the establishment of a nomogram prediction model.Finally,the Hosmer-lemeshow(H-L)goodness of fit test,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,decision curve analysis(DCA)and clinical impact curve(CIC)were utilized to evaluate the fit degree,accuracy,calibration,and clinical practicability of the nomogram prediction model.Results Single factor analysis revealed significant differences between infection group and control group in portal vein cancer thrombus(PVTT),Child-Pugh grade,China Liver Cancer Staging(CNLC)stage,alcohol consumption history,smoking history,white blood cell count(WBC),neutrophil count(NE),hemoglobin(Hb),fibrinogen(FIB),abnormal prothrombin(PIVKA-Ⅱ),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),alanine aminotransferase(ALT),total protein(TP),prealbumin(PA),γ-glutamyltransferase(GGT),alkaline phosphatase(ALP),cholinesterase(CHE),total bile acid(TBA),total cholesterol(TC),low density lipoprotein(LDL),creatinine(Cr),HBV DNA,CD3+T cells count,CD4+T cells count,CD8+T cells count,CD4+T cells/CD8+T cells ratio,procalcitonin(PCT),serum amyloid A(SAA),interleukin-6(IL-6),high-sensitivity C-reactive protein(hs-CRP),alpha-fetoprotein(AFP),and IL-4(P＜0.05).LASSO regression analysis identified 5 variables:Child-Pugh grade,PVTT,WBC,CHE and hs-CRP.Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that Child-Pugh grade(Grade B:OR=5.780,95％CI 3.271-10.213,P＜0.001;Grade C:OR=14.818,95％CI 7.697-28.526,P＜0.001),PVTT(OR=2.893,95％CI 2.037-4.108,P＜0.001),WBC(OR=1.088,95％CI 1.031-1.148,P=0.002),and hs-CRP(OR=1.005,95％CI 1.001-1.010,P=0.026)were the independent risk factors of spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients.Using these 4 variables,a nomogram prediction model was constructed and evaluated.The P-value of the H-L goodness of fit test was 0.760.Moreover,the area under ROC curve(AUC)was 0.866,with a sensitivity of 0.870 and a specificity of 0.716.The average absolute error of the calibration curve is 0.022.DCA and CIC analyses demonstrated that the nomogram prediction model possessed some clinical utility.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model for spontaneous peritonitis in HBV-related primary liver cancer patients,constructed using Child-Pugh grade,PVTT,WBC and hs-CRP,exhibits a high fitting degree and accuracy,with the prediction probability highly consistent with the actual occurrence probability,and possesses certain clinical practicability.
