Predictive modeling and risk factors analysis for venous thromboembolism post-laparoscopic urological surgery
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.1376.2024.0605
- VernacularTitle:泌尿外科腹腔镜术后发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素及其预测模型
- Author:
Song-Lin CHEN
1
;
Jun QU
;
Cong HUANG
;
Jin-Zhu XIAO
Author Information
1. 海南省肿瘤医院泌尿外科,海南 海口 570100
- Keywords:
urology;
venous thromboembolism;
laparoscopic surgery;
risk factors;
prediction model
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2025;50(6):721-727
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the risk factors of venous thromboembolism(VTE)following laparoscopic urological surgery and to construct a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data from 846 laparoscopic surgery patients admitted to the Urology Department of Hainan Cancer Hospital from January 2020 to January 2023.Patients were divided into VTE group(n=64)and non-VTE group(n=782)based on postoperative VTE confirmed by imaging examination.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for VTE after laparoscopic urological surgery.A predictive model was developed using regression coefficients from the multivariate analysis,and its predictive accuracy was assessed using a nomogram.Additionally,its sensitivity and specificity were evaluated through the construction of a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and a calibration curve.The clinical application of predictive model was evaluated using a decision curve analysis.Results The incidence of VTE after laparoscopic urological surgery was 7.6%(64/864).Significant differences were observed between two groups in age,body mass index(BMI),hypertension,diabetes,malignant tumor,history of abdominal surgery,previous VTE,operation time≥4 h,preoperative fibrinogen levels,preoperative prothrombin time,postoperative D-dimer(D-D)levels,Caprini score and postoperative immobilization time(P<0.05).Increasing age,higher BMI,history of malignancy,abdominal surgery,and previous VTE,longer operation and postoperative immobilization time,and higher postoperative D-D levels and Caprini score were identified as independent risk factors for the development of VTE after urological laparoscopy(P<0.05).Based on the regression coefficients between independent risk factors,a predictive model was constructed as P=ex/(1+ex),where X=0.054×age+0.105×BMI+0.902×history of abdominal surgery+1.172×previous VTE+0.787×operation time+1.546×malignant tumor+0.867×postoperative D-D+1.303×Caprini score+0.544×postoperative immobilization time-13.888.The model demonstrated a discriminant evaluation C-index of 0.827,and the area under the ROC curve for the combined independent risk factors is 0.827(95%CI 0.776-0.878),with a sensitivity of 64.1%,and specificity of 87.7%.Calibration and decision curves indicated that high predictive accuracy and clinical application of the model.Conclusions Increasing age,higher BMI,history of malignancy,abdominal surgery,and previous VTE,longer operation and postoperative immobilization time,and higher postoperative D-D and Caprini score are independent risk factors for the development of VTE after urological laparoscopy.
