Age-period-cohort model analysis and prediction of breast cancer incidence and mortality among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.1919.2025.0324
- VernacularTitle:1992-2021年中国女性乳腺癌发病和死亡的年龄-时期-队列模型分析及预测
- Author:
Qing SHANG
1
;
Hai-Peng WANG
;
Jing WANG
Author Information
1. 河南省新乡市中心医院普通外科,河南 新乡 453000
- Keywords:
breast cancer;
incidence;
mortality;
age-period-cohort model;
prediction
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2025;50(4):436-443
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021,assess the impact of age,period,and cohort on its incidence and mortality rates,and predict future trends to provide a basis for developing effective intervention strategies.Methods Utilizing the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD2021)database,the Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women from 1992 to 2021.The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among Chinese women during the same period.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women from 2022 to 2026.A stratified analysis was conducted to explore the impact of different risk factors[including smoking,alcohol consumption,high body mass index(BMI),hyperglycemia,physical inactivity,and diet]on breast cancer mortality.Results From 1992 to 2021,the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among Chinese women showed an overall upward trend,with incidence rates rising from 15.95/100,000 in 1992 to 55.54/100,000 in 2021,and mortality rates increasing from 7.35/100,000 to 12.41/100,000.The age-standardized incidence rate also exhibited an upward trend,rising from 18.51/100,000 to 37.00/100,000,with an average annual percentage change(AAPC)of 2.43%.However,the age-standardized mortality rate showed an overall downward trend,decreasing from 9.05/100,000 to 8.24/100,000,with an AAPC of-0.35%.The APC model analysis revealed that the age,period,and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were statistically significant(P<0.001).Within the same birth cohort,breast cancer incidence increased in women aged 15-89 years but decreased in those≥90 years.Breast cancer mortality showed a steady increase with age.With the increase in years,the risk of breast cancer incidence gradually increased,reaching the highest between 2017 and 2021,with a relative risk(RR)value of 1.37.Conversely,the risk of breast cancer mortality decreased with the increase in years,with the lowest mortality between 2012 and 2016,and an RR value of 0.86.With the increase in the birth cohort year,the risk of breast cancer incidence gradually increased,while the risk of mortality gradually decreased.The ARIMA model prediction results showed that the age-standardized incidence rate of breast cancer among women would continue to rise from 2022 to 2026,reaching 40.25/100,000 by 2026,while the age-standardized mortality rate would tend to stabilize at 8.28/100,000 by 2026.Among the risk factors for breast cancer,diet was found to have the highest impact on breast cancer mortality.Conclusions The incidence rate of breast cancer among Chinese women continues to rise,indicating that the prevention and control situation remains severe.Future efforts should focus on developing precise screening programs for high-risk populations and optimizing early screening strategies and treatment resource allocation based on predicted trend.
