Association Between Surrogate Markers of Insulin Resistance and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in a Population With Stages 0-3 Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome:A Prospective Cohort Study
- VernacularTitle:心肾代谢综合征0-3期人群胰岛素抵抗替代指标与新发心血管疾病的关联:一项前瞻性队列研究
- Author:
Yajie ZHAO
1
;
Lele WANG
;
Jiawei LI
;
Bing GUO
;
Juying ZHANG
;
Xiaolin GUO
;
Yuying LUO
;
Gonghua WU
;
Xing ZHAO
Author Information
- Keywords: Insulin resistance; Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome; Cardiovascular disease; Triglyceride-glucose index
- From: Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Sciences) 2025;56(2):495-505
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To investigate the association between 8 insulin resistance(IR)surrogate markers and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease(ASCVD)in population with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome(CKM)of stages 0-3,and to identify the surrogate marker with the best predictive performance.Methods A study was conducted on 20121 community residents classified as CKM stages 0-3 from the Chengdu cohort of the China Multi-Ethic Cohort.A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios(HRs)between each IR surrogate marker and incident ASCVD.Cubic spline regression was employed to explore the dose-response relationships between these markers and incident ASCVD.The relative relationships between different markers and incident ASCVD were examined through the ratio of HRs(RHRs).Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(TDAUC)and Uno's C-statistic were calculated to compare the predictive performance of each marker for incident ASCVD.Based on the PREVENT equation components and the 8 surrogate markers under analysis,random forest feature selection was used to determine the contribution of each marker to accurate prediction.Results During a follow-up period of82 741.93 person-years,1447 incident cases of ASCVD were recorded,with an incidence density of 17.49 per 1000 person-years.Association analyses indicated that the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio(TG/HDL)and the TyG/(TG/HDL)index were not associated with incident ASCVD(P＞0.05).The TyG index combined with obesity measurement parameters emerged as a reliable predictor of ASCVD incidence.The most promising indicator,TyG index with waist-to-height ratio(TyG_WHtR),exhibited an inverted J-shaped association with incident ASCVD(P for nonlinearity=0.045;TDAUC=0.640;C=0.634),while the TyG index with body mass index(TyG_BMI),waist circumference(TyG_WC),and waist-to-hip ratio(TyG_WHR)showed positive linear associations(all P for trend＜0.05),with relatively lower predictive performance(C=0.564,0.588,and 0.598,respectively).Although both the TyG index and the metabolic score for insulin resistance(METS-IR)were associated with increased ASCVD risk(TyG:Q2 vs.Q1,HR=1.23 and Q4 vs.Q1,HR=1.24;METS-IR:P for non-linearity=0.045),they exhibited poor predictive performance for incident ASCVD.Conclusion The TyG index combined with obesity measurement parameters is an ideal IR surrogate marker for predicting incident ASCVD in populations with stages 0-3 CKM.Monitoring these markers will facilitate the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases in CKM populations.
