Outcomes of Endoscopic Treatment of Esophagogastric Variceal Bleeding and Construction and Validation of a 1-Year Rebleeding Risk Prediction Model
- VernacularTitle:食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血内镜治疗效果及1年内再出血风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Jianbo YANG
1
;
Xiaomei HUANG
;
Yuanjing HE
;
Lili ZHANG
;
Yujun LUO
Author Information
- Keywords: Esophageal and gastric varices; Bleeding; Endoscopic variceal ligation; Endoscopic injection sclerotherapy; Risk
- From: Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Sciences) 2025;56(1):284-290
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To explore the efficacy of endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding(EGVB),investigate the risk factors for rebleeding within 1 year,and establish a predictive model accordingly.Methods A retrospective study was conducted using the clinical and follow-up data of 120 EGVB patients who underwent endoscopy at our hospital between January 2021 and December 2022.The efficacy of endoscopic therapy was analyzed,and the patients were divided into a bleeding group and a non-bleeding group based on whether rebleeding occurred within 1 year after treatment.The factors influencing rebleeding within 1 year after treatment were analyzed,and a predictive model was established using logistic regression analysis.The model's goodness of fit was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and its clinical value was analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The hemostasis success rate within 72 hours after endoscopic therapy was 100％in all 120 patients.Four weeks after endoscopic treatment,endoscopic reexamination showed that the complete and partial disappearance rate of varices was 75.83％(91/120),with rebleeding occurring in 10 cases(8.33％).There were 34 cases(28.33％)of cumulative rebleeding at 6 months and 63 cases(52.50％)at 1 year after endoscopic therapy.Nine patients(7.50％)died within 1 year after endoscopic therapy,all of whom were rebleeding cases.A total of 63 patients with rebleeding were included in the bleeding group,and 57 patients without rebleeding were included in the non-bleeding group.Serum sodium＜135 mmol/L(odds ratio[OR]=3.837,95％confidence interval[CI]:1.095-13.445),Child-Pugh grade C(OR=3.835,95％CI:1.137-12.935),esophageal varices degree G3(OR=5.113,95％CI:1.565-16.707),and main portal vein diameter＞12 mm(OR=5.964,95％CI:2.295-15.497)were identified as risk factors of rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in EGVB patients(P＜0.05).The risk prediction model for rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in EGVB patients was shown as P=1/{1+e[-(-3.815+1.345×serum sodium+1.344×Child-Pugh grade+1.786×main portal vein diameter+1.632×esophageal varices degree)]}.The Hosmer-Lemeshow x2 was 3.158(P=0.856).The area under the curve(AUC)for predicting rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in EGVB patients was 0.815,indicating good predictive performance.Clinical validation showed that the model had an accuracy of 82.30％,with sensitivity and specificity being 81.03％and 83.63％,respectively.Conclusion Endoscopic therapy for EGVB achieves a high rate of acute bleeding control,but patients remain at risk of rebleeding.Rebleeding is associated with serum sodium＜135 mmol/L,Child-Pugh grade C,main portal vein diameter＞12 mm,and esophageal varices degree G3.The logistic regression model can effectively predict the probability of rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy.
