Underestimated risk of breast ductal carcinoma in situ and risk model construction
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0754.2025.08.010
- VernacularTitle:超声引导下细针穿刺细胞学检查低估乳腺导管原位癌的风险模型构建
- Author:
Renjie WANG
1
;
Lifeng CHEN
;
Zhiping PAN
;
Limin SHEN
Author Information
1. 214200 江苏无锡,宜兴市中医医院超声医学科
- Keywords:
Ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration cytology;
Ductal carcinoma in situ;
Nomogram;
Risk model
- From:
Journal of Navy Medicine
2025;46(8):793-797
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the underestimated influencing factors of ductal carcinoma in situ(DCIS)detected by ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration cytology(US-FNAC),and to construct and validate the nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 105 patients with DCIS diagnosed by US-FNAC in Yixing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively selected.All patients were female and aged 40-76 years.According to postoperative pathological results,they were assigned to underestimated group(n=27)and non-underestimated group(n=78).The clinical data of the patients were collected to analyze the influencing factors of the underestimation of DCIS,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was drawn,and the area under the curve(AUC)was used to analyze the predictive efficacy of the prediction model for the underestimated risk of DCIS before operation.Results Univariate analysis showed that the proportions of palpable masses,tumor size>2 cm,microcalcification,and breast imaging reporting and data system(BI-RADS)4B-5 in the underestimated group were higher than those in the non-underestimated group(P<0.05).Binary logistic regression analysis showed that tumor size[(odds ratio,OR)=4.453,95%(confidence interval,C I):1.890-10.486],microcalcification(OR=3.079,95%CI:1.650-5.742),BI-RADS classification(OR=5.211,95%CI:2.528-10.740)were the independent risk factors for preoperative underestimation of DCIS(P<0.05).Internal validation of the nomogram prediction model based on the above factors showed that the C-index was 0.865(95%CI:0.785-0.952),and the correction curve for predicting the underestimation of DCIS was close to the ideal curve(P>0.05).ROC curve showed that the nomogram model had a sensitivity of 87.90%,a specificity of 88.60%,and an AUC of 0.895(95%CI:0.823-0.966).Conclusion Tumor size,microcalcification and BI-RADS classification are independent risk factors for preoperative underestimation of DCIS.The nomogram prediction model based on these factors can better evaluate the risk of preoperative underestimation of DCIS.
