Construct a risk prediction scheme for recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer based on biochemical test indexes
10.3969/j.issn.1673-4130.2025.20.011
- VernacularTitle:基于生化检验指标构建糖尿病足溃疡复发的风险预测方案
- Author:
Xiaomei XIE
1
;
Rong SU
;
Minxian ZHONG
;
Jiahui SU
Author Information
1. 广东省佛山市中医院检验医学中心,广东佛山 528000
- Keywords:
diabetic foot ulcer;
recurrence;
biochemical test;
prediction model
- From:
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine
2025;46(20):2490-2496
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish a risk prediction scheme for recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer based on biochemical test indexes.Methods The clinical data of totally 198 patients with diabetic foot ulcer in the hos-pital from January 2016 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed,and randomly divided into a training group(n=139)and a verification group(n=59)according to a ratio of 7∶3.The general data of the training group and the verification group were compared.The training group was divided into recurrence group(n=75)and non-recurrence group(n=64)according to whether there was recurrence or not during following-up.General data of the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group were compared,and the influencing factors of recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer were analyzed by Logistic regression to establish a Nomogram model.Re-ceiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the prediction ability of the Nomogram mod-el for both the training group and the verification group,and the Nomogram model was internally verified by Bootstrap method.The clinical net benefit rate of this Nomogram model was verified by decision curve analy-sis(DCA).Results The recurrence rate of 198 patients was 53.03％(105/198).Glycosylated hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c,OR=1.86 6,95％CI:1.377-2.529),white blood cell count(WBC,OR=1.687,95％CI:1.094-2.602),C-reactive protein(CRP,OR=1.704,95％CI:1.145-2.537),platelet(PLT,OR=1.939,95％CI:1.270-2.961),serum creatinine(Scr,OR=1.687,95％CI:1.193-2.387),blood urea nitrogen(BUN,OR=1.685,95％CI:1.227-2.315),urine microalbumin-creatinine ratio(ACR,OR=1.842,95％CI:1.230-2.759),and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF,OR=1.829,95％CI:1.281-2.614)were risk factors for recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer(P＜0.05),albumin(ALB,OR=0.462,95％CI:0.287-0.742)and total bilirubin(TBIL,OR=0.506,95％CI:0.327-0.783)were protective factors for the recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUG)of the Nomogram model was 0.928(95％CI:0.802-0.985),the sensitivity was 91.71％,and the specificity was 82.41％.The AUC of the prediction group was 0.775(95％CI:0.617-0.890),the sensitivity was 79.17％,and the specificity was 86.48％.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed P values were both over 0.05 in the training group and the verification group,and the model calibration was well.The Nomogram model predicts that the training group could obtain net clinical benefits in the range of 0.00％to 96.00％,and the verification group can obtain net clinical bene-fits in the range of 0.00％to 95.00％.Conclusion HbA1c,WBC,CRP,PLT,Scr,BUN,ACR and VEGF are risk factors for the recurrence of diabetic foot ulcer,and ALB and TBIL are protective factors for the recur-rence of diabetic foot ulcer.Integrating these factors to construct a Nomogram model could predict the recur-rence of diabetic foot ulcer effectively.
