Construction of a prognostic model of future asthma exacerbation risk in adults combined with novel biomarkers
10.3969/j.issn.1673-4130.2025.04.010
- VernacularTitle:结合新型生物标志物的成人哮喘未来发作风险预后模型构建研究
- Author:
Li ZHANG
1
;
Liang LI
;
Mei ZHOU
;
Qianyun ZHOU
;
Qin LIU
;
Mei LIANG
;
Jihong TANG
;
Xiaofeng FU
Author Information
1. 重庆市渝北区人民医院呼吸与危重症医学科,重庆 401120
- Keywords:
novel biomarkers;
chitinase-3-like protein 1;
dipeptidyl peptidase-4;
asthma
- From:
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine
2025;46(4):435-442
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a prognostic model of future asthma exacerbation risk in adults by com-bining novel biomarkers of serum chitinase-3-like protein 1(YKL-40),dipeptidyl peptidase-4(DPP4)and conventional predictors.Methods Patients with asthma in the non-acute exacerbation phase were recruited from the People's Hospital of Yubei District of Chongqing,from March 2022 to May 2023.Baseline clinical da-ta collected included medical history,forced expiratory volume in the first second(FEV1)/forced vital capacity(FVC),percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in the first second(FEV1％pred),blood eosinophil count(EOS),blood neutrophil count(NEU),fractional exhaled nitric oxide(FeNO),serum YKL-40,and ser-um DPP4,etc.The patients were followed for one year to gather data on asthma acute exacerbations and their timings as defined in this study.A COX proportional hazards regression model was used to construct a prog-nostic model for future asthma exacerbations,with internal validation and results presentation.Results A to-tal of 224 patients with asthma completed the study.During the one-year follow-up period,102 patients experi-enced acute exacerbations as defined in this study.Based on univariate COX regression,stepwise regression for variable selection,clinical significance,and model simplicity,asthma control test(ACT)score group,number of asthma exacerbations in the past year group,log10(YKL-40),log10(FeNO),log10(EOS),and FEV1％pred were the following predictors were included in the final model.The overall C-statistic of the model was 0.795(95％CI:0.754-0.836),the area under the curve at the 52-week follow-up was 0.879(95％CI:0.834-0.924),and the Brier score at the 52-week follow-up was 0.142(95％CI:0.117-0.168).The calibration curve was close to a slope of 1,and bootstrap validation suggested good stability of the prediction model.The model was presented using a Nomogram and a dynamic scoring table in a web APP,which can be used to predict the risk of asthma exacerbations within 52 weeks for individual patients.Conclusion The prediction model based on serum YKL-40,EOS,FeNO,the number of asthma exacerbation in the past year group,FEV1％pred and ACT scores group can accurately predict the probability of acute attacks in 52 weeks of asthma patients.
