Establishment of a prediction model for severe hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
10.3969/j.issn.1673-4130.2024.23.007
- VernacularTitle:建立肾综合征出血热重症化预测模型的研究
- Author:
Caizheng YU
1
;
Yan ZHANG
;
Wenxuan ZHANG
;
Wei LIU
;
Qing LEI
Author Information
1. 华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院公共卫生科,湖北武汉 430030
- Keywords:
hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome;
severity;
influencing factor;
prediction model
- From:
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine
2024;45(23):2849-2855
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors of the severe hemorrhagic fever with renal syn-drome(HFRS)and establish a relevant prediction model,so as to provide scientific basis for effective treat-ment and improving clinical management.Methods Patients diagnosed with HFRS who were hospitalized in the hospital from January 2018 to December 2023 were included as the study objects,and were divided into a mild group(79 cases)and a severe group(34 cases)based on clinical severity.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the significant influencing factors of clinical severity of HFRS,and a prediction model of HFRS severity was established based on the multivariate Logistic regression analysis results.The prediction value of the prediction model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve(AUC).Results Age(OR=1.069,95％CI:1.025-1.115,P=0.002),urinary protein(OR=6.584,95％CI:1.438-30.141,P=0.015),lactate dehydrogenase(OR=1.002,95％CI:1.001-1.004,P=0.002)and serum creatinine(OR=1.006,95％CI:1.003-1.009,P＜0.001)were independent factors influencing the severity of HFRS.Based on the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis,a predictive model(P)was established:P=1/[1+e^-(-9.458+age×0.067+urinary protein×1.885+lac-tate dehydrogenase×0.002+serum creatinine×0.006)].In addition,the AUC of the prediction model was 0.873(95％CI:0.810-0.936,P＜0.001).Conclusion The prediction efficacy of the prediction model of se-vere HFRS is better than age,urinary protein,lactate dehydrogenase and serum creatinine.The prediction model is simple and practical,which is convenient for clinicians to predict the severe HFRS,and take effective treatment and intervention in time,so as to improve the clinical prognosis of patients.
