Construction and Evaluation of Intimate Partner Homicide Prediction Model
10.12116/j.issn.1004-5619.2023.431005
- VernacularTitle:亲密伴侣杀人案预测模型构建与评价
- Author:
Wei-Ping LÜ
1
;
Xin-Biao LIAO
;
Li-Ju REN
;
Xiao-Ping KONG
;
Yan-Chang CHEN
;
Ya-Fei CHANG
;
Bin LUO
Author Information
1. 新兴县公安局,广东 新兴 527400
- Keywords:
forensic pathology;
intimate partner homicide;
prediction model;
criminal profiling
- From:
Journal of Forensic Medicine
2024;40(6):582-588
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the independent influencing factors of intimate partner homicide(IPH)cases,construct an IPH prediction model,and provide a basis for criminal profiling.Methods A total of 476 convicted homicide cases in Guangdong Province from January 1,2014,to December 31,2020,were collected as modeling dataset.They were divided into the IPH group(n=180)and the non-intimate partner homicide(N-IPH)group(n=296)based on whether the offender and victim were intimate partners.Logistic regression was used to build the model,the model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis and a nomogram was drawn.Inter-nal validation was conducted using ten-fold cross-validation method.A total of 126 court judgments from outside Guangdong Province from January 1,2011,to December 31,2020,were randomly col-lected for external validation.Results Through multi-factor Logistic regression analysis,7 variables were ultimately selected for inclusion in the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test result of the model was χ2=13.158,P=0.068.The ROC area under the curve(AUC)of the model was 0.939(95%CI:0.919-0.959),the cut-off value was 0.292,the sensitivity was 0.900,and the specificity was 0.865.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve.The ten-fold cross-validation showed the accuracy of 0.863 and a Kappa value of 0.708.The external validation results showed an AUC of 0.922(95%CI:0.872-0.971),a cut-off value of 0.292,a sensitivity of 0.890,and a specificity of 0.886.The calibration curve tended to the ideal curve.Conclusion The IPH prediction model based on forensic field indicators has good predictive ability,reliable accuracy and stability,and can provide a scientific method for criminal profiling.
