Comparison of application values among different scoring systems in predicting new onset organ failure in patients with severe acute pancreatitis
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2025.09.012
- VernacularTitle:不同评分系统预测重症急性胰腺炎患者新发器官衰竭的应用价值比较
- Author:
Chensong ZHANG
1
;
Xiaoyu LIU
;
Shan XU
;
Kaixiu QIN
Author Information
1. 重庆医科大学附属第二医院急诊科,重庆 400010
- Keywords:
acute pancreatitis;
organ failure;
OASIS;
severe acute pancreatitis
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2025;54(9):2064-2072
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To compare the application values of the Ranson score,Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis(BISAP),CT Severity Index(CTSI)and Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score(OA-SIS)in forecasting the new onset organ failure in the patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP).Methods The study was a retrospective analysis.A total of 126 cases of SAP receiving by the intensive care unit(ICU)and emergency ICU(EICU)of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2015 to June 2023 served as the study subjects.The clinical data of the patients were collected.The first time OASIS score,Ranson score,BISAP score and CTSI score were calculated within 48 h after the patients ente-ring ICU.The new onset organ failure served as the clinical outcome.The random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression were used to screen the risk factors for new onset organ failure.The multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the correlation between the four scoring systems and new onset organ failure in the SAP patients.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the area under the curve(AUC)were adopted to analyze the predictive efficiency of 4 kinds of scoring sys-tems.Results The age in the organ failure group was higher than that in the non-organ failure group(P=0.039).The OASIS,Ranson,BISAP and CTSI scores in the organ failure group all were higher than those in the non-organ failure group(P＜0.05).The random forest and LASSO regression analysis results showed that Lac,Cr and myoglobin were the most important variables affecting the new onset organ failure in SAP pa-tients.The OASIS score(OR=1.27,95％CI:1.06-1.51,P=0.009)and Ranson score(OR=1.88,95％CI:1.03-3.43,P=0.040)were the independent influencing factors for predicting the new onset organ fail-ure in SAP patients.The ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the OASIS score was the highest(AUC=0.830,95％CI:0.743-0.916).Conclusion The OASIS score is an independent risk factor for predicting the new onset organ failure in SAP patients,moreover has the highest predictive efficiency in predicting the new onset organ failure.
