Construction and validation of a nutritional risk prediction model for patients with radiation oral mucositis
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2025.07.015
- VernacularTitle:放射性口腔黏膜炎患者营养风险预测模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Lijun ZHU
1
;
Lixia ZHU
;
Guoying XU
;
Jingsong YANG
Author Information
1. 浙江省绍兴第二医院医共体总院肿瘤放疗科,浙江 绍兴 312000
- Keywords:
radiation oral mucositis;
nutritional risk;
prediction model;
dietary structure;
influencing factors
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2025;54(7):1611-1617,1622
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of nutritional risk in patients with radia-tion-induced oral mucositis and establish a predictive model.Methods A total of 126 patients with nasopha-ryngeal carcinoma and radiation-induced oral mucositis who visited the General Hospital of Shaoxing Second Hospital Affiliated Healthcare Group,Dongpu Street Community Health Service Center in Yuecheng District,Shaoxing City,and the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected as the model group and divided into the nutritional risk group and the nutrition-ally normal group according to the presence or absence of nutritional risk.Meanwhile,54 patients with radia-tion-induced oral mucositis due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma from February 2023 to March 2024 were selected as the validation group.Logistic regression was used to establish a risk prediction model,and a nomogram was developed and validated.Results Multivariate analysis showed that digestive discomfort symptoms,dietary structure score,and anxiety were factors influencing nutritional risk in patients with radiation-induced oral mucositis.In the model group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.992(95%CI:0.977 to 1.000),the maxi-mum Youden index was 0.961,corresponding specificity was 0.961,sensitivity was 1.000,χ2=4.668,P=0.792.In the validation group,the area under the ROC curve was 0.948(95%CI:0.897 to 0.999),the maxi-mum Youden index was 0.742,corresponding specificity was 0.742,sensitivity was 1.000,χ2=4.438,P=0.816.The model demonstrated good predictive ability.Conclusion A predictive model for nutritional risk factors in patients with radiation-induced oral mucositis is successfully constructed and can provide clinical reference.
