Construction of a prediction model for ulcer recurrence in patients with lower extremity venous ulcers based on logistic regression analysis
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2025.07.009
- VernacularTitle:基于logistic回归分析的下肢静脉溃疡患者溃疡复发预测模型的构建
- Author:
Yali ZHANG
1
;
Binhai CHEN
;
Ying JIN
Author Information
1. 浙江中医药大学附属第二医院全科医学科,杭州 310005
- Keywords:
lower extremity ulcers;
recurrence;
logistic regression models;
risk factors
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2025;54(7):1576-1580
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a predictive model for ulcer recurrence in patients with lower limb venous ulcers based on logistic regression analysis.Methods A total of 198 patients with lower limb venous ulcers admitted to our hospital from January 2022 to June 2023 were selected as research subjects.All patients received surgical treatment and were divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups based on postoperative recurrence status.Clinical data including general information,lifestyle habits,comorbidities,postoperative be-haviors,and surgical details were collected.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for ulcer recurrence and construct a predictive model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the model,while ROC curves and AUC assessed predictive perform-ance.Results Among 198 patients with lower limb venous ulcers,44 experienced postoperative ulcer recur-rence(22.22%recurrence rate).Age≥65 years,superficial femoral valve repair,non-compliance,and high ligation of the great saphenous vein were independent risk factors for recurrence(P<0.05).The model's AUC was 0.926(95%CI:0.865 to 0.987).Conclusion The predictive model for ulcer recurrence in lower limb venous ulcer patients demonstrates high clinical value for guiding early intervention and prevention.
