Construction of prediction model for acute hypertension following laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy in obese patients
10.16139/j.1007-9610.2025.05.05
- VernacularTitle:肥胖病人腹腔镜胃袖状切除术后急性高血压的预测模型构建
- Author:
Yue WANG
;
Junwei GUO
;
Hang YUAN
;
Lei DU
;
Xuyang JIA
;
Le BU
;
Liesheng Lu
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- From:
Journal of Surgery Concepts & Practice
2025;30(5):400-408
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the high-risk factors associated with acute postoperative hypertension (APH) following laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy(LSG) in obese patients and to establish a predictive model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data and laboratory parameters of obese patients who underwent LSG at Department of Metabolic Surgery in our hospital from August 2021 to December 2023. Logistic-LASSO regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for APH. A nomogram predictive model was developed based on these factors. The predictive performance and clinical utility of the model were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Bootstrap resampling, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). Results The incidence of APH was 55.90%. Body mass index (BMI), platelet count, globulin, uric acid, sodium, fibrinogen, fasting blood glucose, and preoperative diastolic pressure had potential predictive value. Among them, BMI (OR=1.066, 95% CI: 1.003-1.137, P=0.046), platelet count (OR=0.994, 95% CI: 0.998-0.999, P=0.027), fibrinogen (OR=1.943, 95% CI: 1.128-3.479, P=0.02), and preoperative diastolic blood pressure (OR=0.953, 95% CI: 0.918-0.985, P = 0.006) were identified as independent high-risk factors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.783 (95% CI: 0.711-0.855), with a sensitivity of 0.817 and a specificity of 0.689. The AUC based on Bootstrap resampling was 0.776 (95% CI: 0.702-0.849). The H-L test yielded P>0.05, and the calibration curve showed good model fit. Both DCA and CIC demonstrated favorable screening efficiency. Conclusions BMI, platelet count, fibrinogen, and preoperative diastolic blood pressure are independent high-risk factors for APH following LSG. The developed nomogram model exhibits good predictive performance and clinical applicability, providing a valuable tool for early screening and prevention of APH in LSG patients.
