Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2027
10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2026.01.005
- Author:
ZHOU Fan
;
WANG Xiaohon
;
CHEN Mengqian
;
ZHANG Xiaolan
;
XU Zelin
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
colorectal cancer；incidence；mortality；average annual percent change；grey Markov model
- From:
Journal of Preventive Medicine
2026;38(1):26-30
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2024, and to predict the incidence and mortality from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving regional colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies.
Methods:Data on incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2024 were collected through the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System. The crude incidence and crude mortality were calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. Trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2024 were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). A grey Markov model was constructed to predict the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027.
Results:From 2016 to 2024, the crude incidence and standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City were 46.90/100 000 and 30.69/100 000, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=4.594% and 2.051%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 17.47/100 000 and 10.36/100 000, respectively, and the trends were not statistically significant (both P>0.05). The standardized incidence and standardized mortality of colorectal cancer in males were higher than those in females (35.38/100 000 vs. 25.68/100 000, 11.96/100 000 vs. 8.57/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the ≥80 years age group were the highest, at 220.04/100 000 and 186.86/100 000, respectively. From 2016 to 2024, the standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in males and females showed upward trends (AAPC=5.069% and 3.965%, both P<0.05), while the trends in standardized mortality were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The crude incidence in the 70-<80 years age group showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.320%, P<0.05), and the crude mortality in the 40-<50 years age group showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.756%, P<0.05). Trends in other age groups were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The prediction results of the grey Markov model showed that the predicted values of crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the whole population would increase from 58.20/100 000 and 20.04/100 000 in 2025 to 61.70/100 000 and 21.26/100 000 in 2027.
Conclusions:From 2016 to 2024, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City showed upward trends, while the mortality trend was stable. Males and the elderly aged ≥80 years are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. It is predicted that both crude incidence and crude mortality will increase from 2025 to 2027.
- Full text:20260202155947128752016—2027年金华市结直肠癌发病和死亡趋势分析及预测.pdf
