The incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County, Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022
10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2025.02.020
- Author:
Zhifei Chen
1
;
Yimamu Maiwulajiang
2
;
Kerimu Munire
3
;
Liping Zhang
1
;
Yanling Zheng
1
Author Information
1. Dept of Mathematics Teaching and Research , Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830017
2. Kashgar District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Xinjiang,Kashgar 844000
3. Dept of Epidemiology and Statistics , School of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830017 ;
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
ulmonary tuberculosis;
trend analysis;
connection point regression model;
age-period-cohort model;
incidence;
Yecheng County , Xinjiang
- From:
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
2025;60(2):326-331
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the trend of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022 and the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis, so as to provide a new theoretical reference for the prevention and control of local pulmonary tuberculosis.
Methods :Based on the registration data of new pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Yecheng County, Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022, the connection point regression model was used to calculate the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate, annual percentage change(APC), and average annual percentage change(AAPC) to describe the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the influence of age, period and birth cohort effect on the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence.
Results :From 2011 to 2022, a total of 17 057 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were registered in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. The crude incidence and standardized incidence were 416.07/100 000 and 496.01/100 000, respectively. The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased first and then decreased during the 12 years, with an upward trend from 2011 to 2018. The APC values of the standardized incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were 24.42%(95%CI: 11.55-38.78), 27.24%(95%CI: 12.35-44.10) and 21.79%(95%CI: 9.81-35.09), respectively. From 2018 to 2022, there was a downward trend. The APC values of the standardized incidence of tuberculosis in the total population, males and females were-38.51%(95%CI:-53.27--19.09),-38.18%(95%CI:-54.59--15.85) and-38.73%(95%CI:-52.96--20.19), respectively. With the increase of age, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a trend of rising first and then fluctuating steadily. The risk of the population increased first and then decreased over time, and the later the birth, the lower the risk of the cohort.
Conclusion:The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing in the past 12 years, and gradually increased with age. The earlier the birth, the higher the risk of the disease. Men and the elderly are the key targets of tuberculosis prevention and control in Yecheng County, Xinjiang. It is recommended to strengthen the screening of key populations.
- Full text:20260122112910520922011—2022年新疆叶...趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析_陈志斐.pdf
