Prognostic factors of disease-free survival in type Ⅱ and Ⅲ esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma patients and construction of a nomogram model
10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2025.01.023
- Author:
Panquan Luo
1
;
Nanping Xiao
2
;
Tao Guo
1
;
Herui Zhang
3
;
Shihao Peng
1
Author Information
1. Dept of General Surgery，The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University，Hefei 230022; Anhui Public Health Clinical Center，Hefei 230012
2. Dept of Emergency，Affiliated Hospital of Jinggangshan University， Ji’an 343000
3. Dept of Gastroenterology，Suzhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University，Suzhou 234000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma;
disease-free survival;
hepatitis B;
prognosis;
TNM stage;
nomogram
- From:
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
2025;60(1):159-166
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To investigate the independent prognostic factors affecting disease-free survival(DFS) after radical surgery in Ⅱ and Ⅲ adenocarcinoma of gastroesophageal junction(AEG) patients, and to construct a nomogram prediction model.
Methods :A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort comprising 326 patients who were diagnosed with AEG. Chi-square test was used for categorical variable analysis. The survival analysis was drawn by Kaplan-Meier method and tested by log-rank method. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified independent prognostic factors, and based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict 3-year and 5-year DFS in AEG patients. The calibration curves evaluated the performance of nomogram.
Results:Among 326 AEG patients, 281 were in the young group(<70 years old) and 45 were in the old group(≥70 years old). Kaplan-Meier curve showed that patients with advanced age, TNM stage Ⅰ-Ⅱ and no history of hepatitis B had longer DFS. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age, TNM stage and history of hepatitis B were independent prognostic factors for DFS. The 3-year and 5-year correction curves showed that the prediction efficiency of nomogram was good. The decision curve analysis showed that the model had a good clinical net benefit.
Conclusion: Age, TNM stage and history of hepatitis B are independent prognostic factors for DFS in AEG patients. The nomogram constructed and validated can be used to predict DFS in AEG patients.
- Full text:2026012117220417144Ⅱ和Ⅲ型食管胃结合部腺癌术...因素分析及诺模图模型的构建_罗盼权.pdf
