Analysis of the global disease burden and trend of early-onset colorectal cancer
10.12025/j.issn.1008-6358.2025.20250383
- VernacularTitle:全球早发性结直肠癌疾病负担及趋势分析
- Author:
Zhanghan CHEN
1
;
Siqi GAN
1
;
Yiyuan CAO
1
;
Linda LI
1
;
Tianyu ZHANG
1
;
Jia SONG
1
;
Zhipeng QI
1
;
Yunshi ZHONG
1
Author Information
1. Endoscopy Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
- Publication Type:Monographicreport:Endoscopicdiagnosisandtreatmentofdigestivesystemdiseases
- Keywords:
early-onset colorectal cancer;
incidence;
mortality;
disability-adjusted life year;
global burden of disease
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine
2025;32(5):734-742
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden trend from 2022 to 2026. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of EOCRC across 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021 were obtained. The time trends of these indicators were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and the contributions of ten risk factors to the EOCRC burden were analyzed. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2026. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of new global EOCRC cases increased from 107 310 to 211 890, with the incidence rising from 3.96 to 5.37 per 100 000 people. In 2021, global EOCRC incidence, mortality, and DALY rate increased with age; males had higher rates than females in terms of incidence, mortality, and DALY rate in all age groups. In 2021, East Asia had the highest number of new cases, deaths, and DALY. From 1990 to 2021, the global EAPC for incidence rate was 0.96%, and death rate was –0.38%. ARIMA model indicated that from 2022 to 2026, the global incidence of EOCRC would continue to rise, while mortality and DALY rate would be expected to decline. Conclusions The disease burden of EOCRC has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, with notable regional, age, and sex differences. By 2026, the mortality and DALY rate of EOCRC will decline, while the incidence is expected to further increase, highlighting the urgency of taking active measures to address the growing trend of EOCRC.
