Value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet ratio in predicting recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites and establishment of a nomogram model
- VernacularTitle:中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞和血小板比值（NLPR）对乙型肝炎肝硬化腹水患者再代偿的预测价值及列线图模型构建
- Author:
Meiling XIAN
1
;
Jie CHEN
2
;
Huaqian XU
2
;
Shanhong TANG
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: Hepatitis B; Liver Cirrhosis; Ascites; Neutrophil to Lymphocyte and Platelet Ratio; Nomograms
- From: Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(11):2329-2335
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet ratio （NLPR） and recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites， and to establish an individualized risk prediction model. MethodsThe patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites who were hospitalized in Department of Gastroenterology， The General Hospital of Western Theater Command of Chinese PLA， from January 2015 to December 2022 were enrolled. General information and laboratory markers were collected， and NLPR was calculated. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test or the chi-square test with correction was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The subjects were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. In the training set， univariate and multivariate binary Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the independent influencing factors for recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites， and a nomogram was established； the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was used to assess the value of the new model in predicting recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites， and the Delong test was used for comparison of the area under the ROC curve （AUC）. The calibration curve and the decision curve were plotted for the model， and the model was assessed in terms of degree of fitting and predictive benefits. ResultsA total of 360 patients were enrolled， among whom134 achieved recompensation. There were 252 patients in the training set and 108 patients in the validation set， and there were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the two groups （all P>0.05）. The Logistic regression analysis showed that the onset of hepatic encephalopathy （odds ratio ［OR］=0.066， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.008 — 0.545， P=0.012）， NLPR （OR=0.950， 95%CI： 0.912 — 0.989， P=0.012）， alpha-fetoprotein （OR=1.012， 95%CI： 1.005 — 1.020， P<0.001）， and albumin （OR=1.096， 95%CI： 1.031 — 1.166， P=0.003） were independent influencing factors for recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites. The above four factors were included in a nomogram predictive model， which had an AUC of 0.776， a sensitivity of 66.5%， and a specificity of 76.3% in the training set and an AUC of 0.746， a sensitivity of 63.4%， and a specificity of 75.7% in the validation set， while Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score， Child-Pugh score， and albumin-bilirubin score had an AUC of 0.574， 0.628， and 0.621， respectively. The nomogram model had a better performance than the other three scores in predicting recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites （Z=4.191， 3.369， and 3.527， P<0.001， P=0.001， and P<0.001）. The calibration curve and the decision curve showed that the model had a good degree of fitting， and the decision made using this model could bring net benefits. ConclusionNLPR has a good value in predicting recompensation in patients with hepatitis B cirrhotic ascites， and the nomogram model established can help to predict recompensation in such patients in clinical practice.
