A cohort study on cumulative atherogenic index of plasma for predicting the risk of developing new-onset non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in a population of young and middle-aged individuals
- VernacularTitle:累积血浆致动脉硬化指数预测中青年人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病发病风险的队列研究
- Author:
Zhenhong GAO
1
;
Qi QI
2
;
Wansong LI
3
;
Xinyu WU
2
;
Quanle HAN
2
;
Lei LI
2
;
Yue JIANG
1
;
Ruojie WU
3
;
Shouling WU
4
;
Kangbo LI
5
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease; Atherogenic Index of Plasma; Risk Factors
- From: Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(11):2278-2285
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the association between cumulative atherogenic index of plasma （cumAIP） and the risk of new-onset nonalcoholic fatty liver disease （NAFLD） in young and middle-aged individuals. MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among the young and middle-aged individuals （aged 18 to <60 years） in the Kailuan study cohort who underwent physical examination in Kailuan General Hospital and its 10 affiliated hospitals in June 2006 to October 2010， and after screening based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria， 33 987 individuals were included in the observation cohort. The individuals were divided into Q1， Q2， Q3， and Q4 groups based on the quantiles of cumAIP. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of new-onset NAFLD in the four groups， while the log-rank test was used for comparison between groups. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to obtain the hazard ratio （HR） and 95% confidence interval （CI） of the risk of new-onset NAFLD in the four groups. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups， and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical variables between groups. ResultsThe mean follow-up was 10.89±2.54 years， and there were 6 011 cases of new-onset NAFLD， including 995 cases in the Q1 group， 1 366 in the Q2 group， 1661 in the Q3 group， and 1 989 in the Q4 group， with an incidence density of 11.37， 16.02， 19.97， and 24.91 per thousand person-years. The log-rank test showed that there was a significant difference in cumulative incidence rate between the four groups （P<0.001）. With the presence or absence of NAFLD as the dependent variable and the quantiles of different exposure levels to cumAIP as the independent variable， the multivariate Cox regression model analysis showed that compared with the Q1 group， the Q2， Q3， and Q4 groups had an HR of 1.30 （95%CI： 1.20 — 1.41）， 1.52 （95%CI： 1.41 — 1.65）， and 1.79 （95%CI： 1.64 — 1.95）， respectively， for new-onset NAFLD， with a Ptrend value of <0.001. With the presence or absence of new-onset NAFLD as the dependent variable and the cumulative exposure to AIP for 0， 2， 4， and 6 years as the independent variable， the Cox regression analysis showed that compared with cumulative exposure to AIP for 0 years， cumulative exposure to AIP for 2， 4， and 6 years had an HR of 1.24 （95%CI： 1.15 — 1.35）， 1.51 （95%CI： 1.40 — 1.64）， and 1.70 （95%CI： 1.56 — 1.84）， respectively， with a Ptrend value of <0.001. A sensitivity analysis was performed after exclusion of the individuals with new-onset NAFLD within 2 years， the individuals who experienced atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events during follow-up， and the individuals taking antihypertensive， hypoglycemic， and lipid-lowering drugs， and the results were similar to those of the main analysis. Considering the competitive relationship between all-cause death and outcome events， a competing risk analysis of death was performed， which showed that the results of risk analysis were similar to those of the main analysis. ConclusionA high level of cumAIP exposure can increase the risk of new-onset NAFLD in young and middle-aged individuals.
