A Multi-site Analysis for the Economic Burden of Mortality Attributable to Cold Spells of Different Intensities in China, 2014-2019.

Cheng ZHAO; Yu WANG; Rui ZHANG; Shi Lu TONG; Jiang HE; Yong Hong LI; Xiao Yuan YAO

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A Multi-site Analysis for the Economic Burden of Mortality Attributable to Cold Spells of Different Intensities in China, 2014-2019.

Author: Cheng ZHAO ¹ ; Yu WANG ¹ ; Rui ZHANG ² ; Shi Lu TONG ³ ; Jiang HE ¹ ; Yong Hong LI ¹ ; Xiao Yuan YAO ¹
Author Information

1. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
2. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
3. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China;School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui, China;School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4006, Australia.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Cold spell; Economic loss; Mortality
MeSH: China/epidemiology*; Humans; Female; Male; Cold Temperature/adverse effects*; Aged; Middle Aged; Adult; Mortality; Infant; Child; Adolescent; Child, Preschool; Young Adult; Climate Change; Aged, 80 and over; Cost of Illness; Infant, Newborn
From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1205-1216
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract: OBJECTIVE:The role of cold spells of different intensities in the economic burden of death is crucial for health adaptation to climate change, especially in a multi-site setting. The objective of the study was to explore the economic burden of mortality attributable to cold spells.
METHODS:We performed a two-stage time-series analysis using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach to evaluate the economic impact of mortality related to cold spells of varying lengths and intensities. This analysis employed a case-crossover design, with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) used for analysis. Analysis was stratified according to age, sex, and region of origin. The results of the assessment show that cold spells have an enormous impact on the economic losses of mortality due to climate change and aging.
RESULTS:Totally, 8.3% (95% CI: 0.0%, 16.0%) to 13.8% (95% CI: 1.0%, 24.8%) of VSL were ascribed to cold spells, accounting for economic losses of 4.71 (95% CI: 0.34, 8.47) to 11.45 (95% CI: 0.00, 21.00) billion CNY, in the cold season. The population aged over 65 y and females are particularly vulnerable. Economic impacts in warmer regions, such as the southern and subtropical zones, are more extensive than those in the northern and temperate zones.
CONCLUSION:Customizing cold spell prevention measures for vulnerable populations or regions is vital to alleviating the socioeconomic burden.