Epidemic Evolution Trends and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Human Brucellosis in Xilingol League Inner Mongolia, from 2004 to 2023.

Zhi Guo LIU; Miao WANG; Hao TANG; Chui Zhao XUE; Zhen Jun LI; Can Jun ZHENG

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Epidemic Evolution Trends and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Human Brucellosis in Xilingol League Inner Mongolia, from 2004 to 2023.

Author: Zhi Guo LIU ¹ ; Miao WANG ² ; Hao TANG ³ ; Chui Zhao XUE ⁴ ; Zhen Jun LI ⁵ ; Can Jun ZHENG ⁵
Author Information

1. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
2. Ulanqab Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jining 112206, Inner Mongolia, China.
3. Tongliao Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Horqin 029199, Inner Mongolia, China.
4. National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), Shanghai 200025, China.
5. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Epidemiological; Human brucellosis; Joinpoint regression analysis; Spatiotemporal analysis
MeSH: China/epidemiology*; Humans; Brucellosis/epidemiology*; Epidemics; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Incidence; Cluster Analysis
From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(7):848-855
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract: OBJECTIVE:Human brucellosis is a serious public health concern in the Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia; however, the epidemic trends are unclear.
METHOD:In this study, Joinpoint regression analysis and spatiotemporal analysis were applied to investigate the epidemic evolution of human brucellosis.
RESULT:From 2004 to 2023, a total of 35,747 cases were reported, with an annual average of 1787.35 cases and an annual average incidence rate of 176.04/100,000. The incidence increased from 173.96/100,000 in 2004 to 500.71/100,000 in 2009 and fluctuated to 61.43/100,000 in 2023. Three epidemic join points were observed in which the disease experienced an alternative rise and fall, peaking in 2009 (APC = 21.73, P > 0.001) and 2020 (APC = 21.51, P > 0.001). The disease showed a persistent decline trend in lentitude (AAPC = -5.30, P > 0.001), suggesting challenges in disease control and a higher risk of rebound. The most cases were reported in Xilinhot City ( n = 4,777), followed by 4,391 in Sonid Left Banner, and 4,324 in Abaga Banner. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed two high clusters (CI and CII) from 2005 to 2012, the high cluster encompassing eight counties and shifting from north to south.
CONCLUSION:The present analysis highlights that human brucellosis has decreased significantly in the Xilingol League, but the epidemic is still severe; further implementation of a strict control program is necessary.