Forecast of the Burden of Lower Respiratory Infections in the Elderly Aged 70 and above in China from 1990 to 2050, GBD2021.
- Author:
Miao Miao ZHANG
1
;
Rui Yi ZHANG
1
;
Yu Chang ZHOU
1
;
Mai Geng ZHOU
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: China; DALY; Lower respiratory infections; Mortality rate; Trends
- MeSH: Humans; China/epidemiology*; Aged; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality*; Aged, 80 and over; Male; Female; Forecasting; Disability-Adjusted Life Years; Global Burden of Disease; Cost of Illness
- From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(5):539-546
- CountryChina
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above.
METHODS:This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios.
RESULTS:According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050.
CONCLUSION:This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
