The Disease Burden of Asthma in China, 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Rui Yi ZHANG; Miao Miao ZHANG; Yu Chang ZHOU; Jia Huan GUO; Xuan Kai WANG; Mai Geng ZHOU

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The Disease Burden of Asthma in China, 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Author: Rui Yi ZHANG ¹ ; Miao Miao ZHANG ¹ ; Yu Chang ZHOU ¹ ; Jia Huan GUO ² ; Xuan Kai WANG ² ; Mai Geng ZHOU ¹
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1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
2. National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Asthma; China; Disability-adjusted life year
MeSH: Humans; Asthma/mortality*; China/epidemiology*; Male; Female; Adult; Middle Aged; Aged; Child; Adolescent; Global Burden of Disease/trends*; Child, Preschool; Young Adult; Infant; Cost of Illness; Disability-Adjusted Life Years; Prevalence; Incidence; Infant, Newborn; Aged, 80 and over; Risk Factors
From: Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(5):529-538
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract: OBJECTIVE:Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios.
METHODS:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change.
RESULTS:In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma.
CONCLUSION:Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.