Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.

Hongrui ZHAO; Zhenping ZHAO; Xuan YANG; Yuchang ZHOU; Ainan JIA; Jiangmei LIU; Peng YIN; Yamin BAI; Zhenxing YANG; Maigeng ZHOU; Xiujuan ZHANG

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Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.

Author: Hongrui ZHAO ¹ ; Zhenping ZHAO ¹ ; Xuan YANG ¹ ; Yuchang ZHOU ¹ ; Ainan JIA ¹ ; Jiangmei LIU ¹ ; Peng YIN ¹ ; Yamin BAI ¹ ; Zhenxing YANG ¹ ; Maigeng ZHOU ² ; Xiujuan ZHANG ^{3
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Author Information

1. National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
2. National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China. zhoumaigeng@ncncd.chinacdc.cn.
3. Department of Endocrinology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China. zhangxiujuan79@
4. com.
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: diabetes; mortality; premature mortality; projection
MeSH: Humans; China/epidemiology*; Female; Male; Mortality, Premature/trends*; Diabetes Mellitus/mortality*; Goals; Middle Aged; Adult
From: Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(4):626-635
CountryChina
Language:English
Abstract: The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.