Epidemiology of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis and Mendelian randomization study based on the China and Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2025.10.14
- Author:
Huihua MA
1
;
Kuipo YAN
1
;
Gang LIU
1
;
Yazhou XU
1
;
Lei ZHANG
1
;
Yizhuo LI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiovascular Disease, First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450000, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Mendelian randomization;
atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter;
disease burden;
epidemiology;
risk factors
- MeSH:
Humans;
China/epidemiology*;
Risk Factors;
Atrial Flutter/epidemiology*;
Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology*;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis;
Male;
Female;
Global Burden of Disease;
Incidence;
Prevalence;
Middle Aged;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years;
Aged
- From:
Journal of Southern Medical University
2025;45(10):2182-2190
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:To analyze the changes in disease burden and risk factors of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 to provide epidemiological evidence for developing effective preventive measures for AF/AFL in China.
METHODS:Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed sex- and age-specific AF/AFL burden metrics across 204 countries or territories. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence, mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were calculated. Joinpoint regression was employed to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in trends. The risk factors were systematically evaluated and further validated using Mendelian randomization analysis.
RESULTS:From 1990 to 2021, China experienced an increase in ASIR of AF/AFL (from 42.63 to 44.93 per 100 000), contrasting with the global decline. While China's ASMR decreased (from 4.93 to 4.33 per 100 000), global ASMR rose slightly (from 4.24 to 4.36 per 100 000). China's ASDR remained stable at 93.29 per 100 000, whereas global ASDR increased marginally (100.81 to 101.40 per 100 000). Significant sex disparities were observed: males showed higher ASIR and ASDR, while females exhibited greater ASMR and ASDR. China had higher incidence and prevalence but lower mortality and DALY rates compared to global averages. In 2021, the key risk factors for AF/AFL included elevated systolic blood pressure, high BMI, smoking, alcohol use, high-sodium diet, and low temperature. Gender-specific patterns emerged: smoking was predominant in males, whereas high BMI disproportionately affected females.
CONCLUSIONS:AF/AFL incidence and prevalence keep increasing in China, and its large population base and demographic aging pose significant public health challenges. Maintaining healthy lifestyle habits, including smoking cessation, alcohol moderation, and a low-sodium diet can help to lower AF/AFL incidence, and regular screenings is crucial for its early detection and treatment.
