Trends in the incidence and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in China from 1990 to 2021: An age-period-cohort analysis.
10.11817/j.issn.1672-7347.2025.250076
- Author:
Xuewei DOU
1
,
2
,
3
;
Wenfei CUI
1
,
4
;
Zhenzhen HAN
5
;
Zhiying CHE
6
;
Xiaobing LI
3
,
7
;
Hongtao GUO
3
,
5
,
8
Author Information
1. School of Medicine, Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou
2. 18739258650@
3. com.
4. 2276509538@qq.com.
5. Department of Rheumatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou
6. Zhongjing College of Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
7. Zhongjing College of Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China. baishaoyao@
8. guoht2009@
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
age-period-cohort model;
age-standardized incidence rate;
agestandardized mortality rate;
disease burden;
joinpoint regression model;
rheumatoid arthritis
- MeSH:
Humans;
China/epidemiology*;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/epidemiology*;
Incidence;
Male;
Female;
Middle Aged;
Adult;
Aged;
Cohort Studies;
Mortality/trends*;
Age Distribution;
Age Factors;
Aged, 80 and over;
Adolescent
- From:
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences)
2025;50(7):1214-1223
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) imposes a heavy burden on individuals, families, and society. This study analyzed the incidence and mortality trends of RA in China from 1990 to 2023 to provide epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control.
METHODS:Data on RA incidence, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths, and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in China by sex and age group from 1900 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in ASIR and ASMR. An age-period-cohort model was constructed using R4.3.1 to evaluate longitudinal age trends and estimate relative risk (RR) values for period and cohort effects.
RESULTS:In 2021, the number of RA cases, ASIR, deaths, and ASMR in China were 247 300, 13.70 per 100 000, 10 300, and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of RA increased annually among both females and males, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of 0.44% and 0.72%, respectively. Over the same period, ASMR declined in the total population and among females, with AAPCs of -0.78% and -1.19%, while the change in males was not statistically significant. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the peak incidence occurred in women aged 60-64 years and men aged 75-79 years, and mortality increased with age. The period effect for incidence rose in both sexes, reaching 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94 to 1.27] for females and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.27) for males during 2017 to 2021, compared with 2002 to 2006. The mortality period effect RR exhibited a downward-upward-downward pattern, decreasing to 0.56 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.61) in females and 0.75 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.82) in males in 2017 to 2021. Cohort analysis indicated that the highest incidence risk occurred in individuals born during 2012 to 2016, while the cohort effect RR for female RA mortality showed a continuous decline beginning with the 1922 to 1926 birth cohort.
CONCLUSIONS:The incidence and mortality risks of RA in China have continued to decline. However, with the aging of the population, the incidence and mortality risks among the elderly have increased. Middle-aged women and elderly men should receive focused attention. Health authorities should strengthen education, prevention, and screening among middle-aged women and enhance disease monitoring in elderly populations to reduce the national burden of RA.
