Analysis and projection of the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China based on the GBD database.
10.11817/j.issn.1672-7347.2025.240430
- Author:
Yexun SONG
1
;
Xiajing LIU
2
;
Yongquan ZHANG
2
;
Heqing LI
3
,
4
Author Information
1. Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China. yexunsongent@csu.edu.cn.
2. Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China.
3. Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410013, China. heqinglient@
4. com.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Bayesian age-period-cohort model;
autoregressive integrated moving average model;
disease burden;
nasopharyngeal carcinoma;
socio-demographic index
- MeSH:
Humans;
China/epidemiology*;
Male;
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality*;
Female;
Middle Aged;
Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality*;
Adult;
Incidence;
Global Burden of Disease;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years;
Aged;
Risk Factors;
Adolescent;
Databases, Factual;
Young Adult;
Cost of Illness;
Child;
Bayes Theorem
- From:
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences)
2025;50(4):675-683
- CountryChina
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
METHODS:Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050.
RESULTS:In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS:Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
