Trends in mortality due to tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.
10.1097/CM9.0000000000002977
- Author:
Ruhai BAI
1
;
Wanyue DONG
2
;
Meng CHU
3
;
Bian LIU
4
;
Yan LI
5
Author Information
1. Clinical medical Research Center, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210008, China.
2. School of Elderly Care Services and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China.
3. Infection Control Office, Department of Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China.
4. Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA.
5. School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Humans;
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*;
Male;
Female;
China/epidemiology*;
Middle Aged;
Global Burden of Disease;
Aged;
India/epidemiology*;
Adult;
South Africa/epidemiology*;
Cohort Studies;
Russia/epidemiology*;
Brazil/epidemiology*;
Tracheal Neoplasms/mortality*;
Bronchial Neoplasms/mortality*;
Adolescent;
Young Adult;
Aged, 80 and over;
Child
- From:
Chinese Medical Journal
2024;137(23):2860-2867
- CountryChina
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) is a major cause of mortality and top contributor to productivity loss in large emerging economies such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). We examined the time trends of TBL mortality across the BRICS to better understand the disease burden in these countries and inform public health and healthcare resource allocation.
METHODS:TBL mortality-related data between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and analyzed using age-period-cohort models. Net drift (local drift) was used to describe the expected age-adjusted TBL mortality rate over time overall (each age group); the longitudinal age curve was used to reflect the age effect; the period rate ratios (RRs) were used to reflect the period effect; and the cohort RR was used to reflect the cohort effect.
RESULTS:In 2019, there were 958.3 thousand TBL deaths across the BRICS, representing 46.9% of the global TBL deaths. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of TBL decreased in Russia, Brazil, and South Africa while increased in China and India, with the largest reduction reported in Russia (-29.6%) and the largest increase in China (+22.4%). India showed an overall increase (+15.7%) in TBL mortality but the mortality risk decreased among individuals born after 1990 (men) and 1995 (women). Although South Africa and Brazil experienced an overall decline in TBL mortality, their recent birth cohorts, such as Brazilian individuals born after 1985 (men) and 1980 (women), and South African men born after 1995, had an increasing TBL mortality risk. China has experienced an overall increase in TBL mortality, with the mortality risk rising among individuals born after 1995 for both men and women. Russia, which had the highest TBL mortality among the BRICS countries in 1990, has demonstrated significant improvement over the past three decades.
CONCLUSIONS:Over the past 30 years, the BRICS accounted for an increasing proportion of global TBL mortality. TBL mortality increased in older women in all the BRICS countries except Russia. Among the recent birth cohort, the risk of TBL mortality increased in Brazil, China, and South Africa. More effective efforts are needed in the BRICS to reduce the burden of TBL and help achieve the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
