Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jinshan District, Shanghai in 2018 - 2023
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.06.015
- VernacularTitle:2018—2023年上海市金山区手足口病流行病学特征及发病趋势预测
- Author:
Pengyan LI
1
;
Zhaopeng DONG
1
;
Canlei SONG
1
;
Shuahua LI
1
;
Jianru DU
1
;
Tang WANG
1
Author Information
1. Jinshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 201599, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hand, foot and mouth disease;
Epidemiology;
Etiology;
Seasonal ARIMA model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(6):62-66
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological and pathogenic characteristics and incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Jinshan District, Shanghai, and to provide data support for the prevention and control of HFMD． Methods Case information and etiological data of HFMD in Jinshan District from 2018 to 2023 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial and population distribution of HFMD cases and their etiological composition and changes. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established to predict the incidence trend of HFMD in 2024. Results From 2018 to 2023, a total of 5,979 cases of HFMD were reported in Jinshan District, with an average annual incidence rate of 123.00/100,000. There were no reports of severe cases or deaths. The incidence of HFMD showed unimodal distribution in 2018 and 2023, bimodal distribution in 2019, and there was no obvious peaks in 2020—2022. The town with the highest average annual incidence rate was Jinshanwei Town, and the town with the lowest average annual incidence rate was Fengjing Town. The male-to-female ratio of the cases was 1.42:1. Most of the cases were under 5 years old, and scattered children were the most common occupation. CVA6 was the predominant pathogen, but EV-A71 was not detected. The optimal fitting prediction model was SARIMAX (2, 0, 0) × (1, 0, 0, 12), and the model predicted a trend of decline after rising first in the incidence of HFMD in Jinshan District in 2024. Conclusion There are obvious temporal, spatial and population differences in HFMD incidence in Jinshan District, and the dominant pathogen of HFMD is CVA6. Prediction data can be used to further strengthen epidemic monitoring, timely detect new variants, and provide the basis for timely adjustment of prevention and control measures of HFMD.
