Influenza epidemic intensity in Urumqi City based on doubling time
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.06.008
- VernacularTitle:基于倍增时间的乌鲁木齐市流感流行强度分析
- Author:
Luping CHEN
1
;
Jia MI
1
;
Yaokai LU
2
;
Kai WANG
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health , Xinjiang Medical University , Urumgi , Xinjiang 83000 , China
2. Urumgi Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Urumgi , Xinjiang 83000 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Influenza;
Doubling time;
Generalized linear model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(6):35-38
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the trend of influenza epidemic intensity in Urumqi City, Xinjiang, in early 2023, and to provide a reference basis for influenza surveillance, prevention and control. Methods Based on the daily number of influenza cases in Urumqi from January 1, 2023 to March 26, 2023, a generalized linear model was established to correlate the cumulative number of cases with the number of days of illness, and the corresponding doubling time was calculated. Results A total of 9 243 influenza cases were included in this study, including 7733 confirmed cases and 1510 suspected cases. The peak incidence of influenza occurred in March, and 6039 positive cases were detected, with a positivity rate of 78.09%. The age group of 3-6 years old had the highest proportion of influenza positive cases, accounting for 32.20%. The longest doubling time among confirmed cases was 13.49 (95% CI:11.95-15.47) in stage 2 (January 22 to February 13), and the shortest was in stage 3 (February 14 to March 26), which was 9.41 (95% CI:8.24-10.91). Conclusion The shorter the doubling time, the faster the speed of influenza transmission, and it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of influenza in winter and spring.
