Epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hainan province from 2014 to 2023
- Author:
LIU Xinyu
;
HE Jian
;
HE Chunna
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Varicella;
epidemiology;
characterization;
surveillance;
Hainan
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2025;25(3):316-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2014 to 2023, and explore the epidemic patterns of varicella in Hainan Province. Methods Download data related to chickenpox in Hainan Province from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and the Public Health Emergency Management System of the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence characteristics of varicella; ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend. Results From 2014 to 2023, a total of 65 832 cases of varicella and one death case were reported in Hainan, with an average annual incidence rate of 66.50/100 000, and the incidence rate fluctuated between 47.31/100 000 and 89.01/100 000. A incidence rate peak occurred every other year. The incidence of varicella showed a seasonal bimodal distribution, with peaks in January and April. The incidence of varicella was negatively correlated with temperature (r=-0.349，P<0.05). Children aged 0-14 years were the main incidence group, and the incidence rate reached its peak in the age group of 5-6 years. Students and young children were the main groups affected by the disease. The incidence rate of male (68.15/100 000) was higher than that of female (62.22/100 000)(χ2=16.80, P<0.05). The incidence rate of male (68.15/100 000) was higher than that of female (62.22/100 000). The 1 dose vaccination rate for 1-year-old children was on the rise, reaching a maximum of 43.2%; The two doses vaccination rate for children aged 4-6 years has been increasing year by year, with the highest reaching 9.9%. A total of 65 cases of varicella PHEE were reported, with M(P25, P75) of 24 (18, 32) cases per case, and a total incidence rate of 2.64%. Primary schools were the main places of occurrence. The ARIMA model has a good predictive fitting effect, and the results show that the predicted incidence in 2024 will increase compared to 2023. There may be peaks in incidence in January to June and October to December. Conclusions The incidence rate of varicella is high in Hainan Province; A lower vaccination rate for varicella in children cannot break the natural prevalence of varicella among healthy children.
- Full text:202511171719163156610.Epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hainan province from 2014 to 2023.pdf
