ARIMA-based modeling to explore the impacts of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the dengue fever epidemic in Yunnan Province
- Author:
JIA Yuchen
;
LI Ning
;
ZHENG Erda
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Dengue fever;
epidemiology characteristics;
autoregressive integrated moving average model
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2024;24(10):1193-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of dengue fever in Yunnan Province and explore whether the prevention and control measures taken during the COVID-19 epidemic in Yunnan Province have impacted the epidemic situation of dengue fever, providing a scientific basis for formulating more targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods The epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023 were analyzed. The data of dengue fever cases from 2013 to 2019 were selected to establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the number of dengue fever cases from 2020 to 2022. The predicted values were compared with the actual observed values. Results A total of 28 131 cases of dengue fever were reported in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023, including 24 209 local cases and 3 922 overseas imported cases, with an average annual reported incidence of 5.35/100 000. There was only one peak incidence per year, mainly distributed from July to November. Dengue fever cases were reported in all states and cities in Yunnan Province, with the top four regions having the highest average annual incidence rates being Xishuangbanna (117.34/100 000), Dehong (56.93/100 000), Lincang (8.44/100 000), and Puer (3.12/100 000). The male-to-female ratio was 1.08∶1, with the age group predominantly from 20 to 50 years. The main occupations of the cases were farmers, commercial service, housework, and the unemployed. Using SPSS software, an ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,2,0)12 model was fitted to the dengue case data from 2013 to 2019, showing good fitting results. The model was used to predict the number of dengue fever cases in each month in Yunnan Province from 2020 to 2022, with only a few of the actual values falling within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values. Conclusions The various prevention and control measures effectively reduced the number of reported cases of dengue fever. With the continuous optimization and adjustment of the prevention and control policy of COVID-19, new requirements for dengue fever prevention efforts should be put forward, implementing more precise control strategies.
- Full text:20251111161550625787.ARIMA-based modeling to explore the impacts of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the dengue fever epidemic in Yunnan Province.pdf
