Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of scrub typhus in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023
- Author:
LIU Puyu
;
JIA Pengben
;
CHEN Li
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Scrub typhus;
time series;
prediction model
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2024;24(9):1042-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Abstract： Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023, forecast the epidemic trend in 2024, and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control measures of scrub typhus in Hainan Province. Methods The data of scrub typhus cases reported in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze the temporal, spatial, and population distribution characteristics of scrub typhus. The simple moving average, seasonal decomposition, and seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models were used to progressively deconstruct and analyze the epidemic patterns of scrub typhus in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023 and predict its incidence trend in 2024. Results A total of 4 300 scrub typhus cases were reported in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence of 2.75/100 000, and the annual reported incidence showed an increasing trend (Z=0.517, P=0.006). The population distribution characteristics were mainly among individuals aged 50-<70 years and those engaged in agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry, with statistically significant differences (all P<0.001). There was an obvious seasonality in the temporal distribution, with cases primarily occurring from April to November, and peaking in October. In terms of regional distribution, the top four cities and counties with the highest cumulative reported cases were Qionghai City (826 cases), Wenchang City (558 cases), Chengmai County (486 cases), and Haikou City (452 cases), accounting for 54.00% of the total number of cases, and there were statistically significant differences in the number of reported cases among different cities (χ2=7 755.55, P<0.001). The SARIMA (1,0,2)(0,1,1)12 model fitted the incidence of scrub typhus in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023 and predicted 364 cases in 2024, roughly equivalent to the number of cases in 2023. Conclusions The incidence of scrub typhus in Hainan Province shows an overall increasing trend. Individuals aged 50-<70 years and those engaged in agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry are the high-risk populations, with a prolonged peak incidence period. The number of predicted cases for 2024 is expected to remain consistent with 2023. Therefore, scientific interventions targeting high-risk populations before the peak incidence may improve the effectiveness of scrub typhus prevention and control.
- Full text:20251110102437197674.Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of scrub typhus in Hainan Province from 2008 to 2023.pdf
