The burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI and its trend prediction in China
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.02.001
- VernacularTitle:中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌疾病负担及其趋势预测
- Author:
Dan WU
1
;
Chuanhua YU
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health , Wuhan University , Wuhan , Hubei 430071 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Colorectal cancer;
High BMI;
Burden of disease;
Mortality;
Disability-adjusted life years
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(2):1-5+29
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the trend in the burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high body mass index (BMI) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the mortality rate from 2022 to 2035. Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data, this paper analyzed the trends of colorectal cancer mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALY) rates and their standardized rates attributed to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021, and calculated their average annual percent change (AAPC). Age-period-cohort (APC) models were applied to assess the age, period, and cohort effects on mortality, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to predict the mortality rate of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI in China from 2022 to 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate (Age-standardized Mortality Rate, ASMR) and standardized DALY rate (Age-standardized Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate, ASDR) of colorectal cancer caused by high BMI in China increased significantly, and the ranking of risk factors rose from 9th to 5th and 4th respectively, with AAPC values of 2.43% (95%CI: 2.29-2.57) and 2.33% (95% CI: 2.21-2.46), which outpaced the global and each Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. The disease burden of male was significantly higher than that of female, and the net drifts in mortality rate of colorectal cancer associated with high BMI were 2.37 times higher than females. In addition, the mortality rate increased significantly with age, and showed a year-on-year increasing trend, and the cohort effect also showed a higher risk of death. It was predicted that the mortality rate of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI in China will continue to rise in the future, increasing by 53.06% from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion In China, the disease burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI continues to increase, especially in the male and elderly population. The colorectal burden associated with high BMI should be reduced by optimizing public health policies, including promoting healthy diet, enhancing weight management, promoting physical activity, and improving cancer screening strategies.
