Influencing factors and the Nomogram model to predict early hematoma expansion of intracranial hemorrhage
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.0855.2023.1206
- VernacularTitle:原发性脑出血早期血肿扩大的影响因素及列线图预测模型
- Author:
Fa WU
1
;
Yu-Lin YANG
;
Ting-Ting WU
;
Rui JIANG
;
Jie WU
;
Peng WANG
;
Fei-Zhou DU
;
Hong-Mei YU
;
Jian-Hao LI
Author Information
1. 解放军西部战区总医院放射诊断科,四川成都 610083
- Keywords:
spontaneous cerebral hemorrhage;
hematoma expansion;
nomogram model;
prediction;
CT
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2024;49(5):504-510
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate factors influencing the occurrence of early haematoma expansion(HE)in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage(sICH),to develop a predictive model and evaluate its predictive efficacy.Methods A retrospective cohort of 238 patients with sICH,admitted to General Hospital of Western Theater Command between January 2017 and December 2022,was analyzed.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the criteria of HE exceeding 33%in relative volume or 6 ml in absolute volume:HE group(n=62)and non-haematoma expansion(NHE)group(n=176).Clinical characteristics,laboratory findings,Non-contrast Computed Tomography(NCCT)imaging,and Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS)scores were compared between the two groups.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for HE and to model the probability of its occurrence.The R language rms package was utilized to construct a nomogram model for predicting HE in sICH patients,Additionally,the related clinical,NCCT,and GCS models were constructed.The predictive efficacy of each model for HE in sICH patients was evaluated using area under Receive Operative Characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),and the clinical application value of each model was assessed using accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,and Jordon's index.The Delong test was applied to analyze differences in the predictive values of the models.Results Significant differences in satellite sign,vortex sign,and history of anticoagulant treatment were observed between two groups(P<0.05).Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed independent risk factors for HE in sICH patients,including the first CT examination time,homogeneity,history of anticoagulant medication,volume,maximal diameter,hypodensity sign,island sign,satellite sign,and vortex sign(P<0.05).The AUCs for the constructed clinical model,NCCT model,GCS model and nomogram model in predicting the occurrence of HE in sICH patients were 0.672,0.706,0.518 and 0.754,respectively.The nomogram model demonstrated higher accuracy,sensitivity,Jordon's index and AUC compared with those in the clinical and NCTT models.Conclusions The first CT examination time,homogeneity,history of anticoagulant treatment,volume,maximum diameter,hypodensity sign,island sign,satellite sign,and vortex sign are independent predictors of early HE in sICH patients.The nomogram model,constructed with the above parameters,demonstrated high predictive efficacy for HE and holds potential for clinical application.
