Colorectal cancer mortality trends inSerbia during1991-2010：an age-period-cohort analysis anda joinpoint regression analysis
10.1186/s40880-016-0118-y
- Author:
MilenaIlic
1
;
IrenaIlic
Author Information
1. Department of Epidemiology
- Keywords:
Colorectal cancer;
Mortality;
Trend;
Joinpoint regression analysis
- From:Chinese Journal of Cancer
2016;35(10):518-527
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background:For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening.
Methods:Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the cor-responding 95% conifdence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends.
Results:We observed a signiifcantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC=1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%–1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC=2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%–2.2%) and women (AAPC=1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%–1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was signiifcantly affected by birth cohort (P<0.05), whereas the study period did not signiifcantly affect the trend (P=0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the ifrst several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), fol-lowed by downward lfexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the ifnal selected model rejected parallelism,P<0.05).
Conclusions:We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.
