Prevalence status and model analysis of type 2 diabetes death in Urumqi
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2024.04.026
- VernacularTitle:乌鲁木齐市2型糖尿病死亡流行现状及模型分析
- Author:
Wusiman WUERLIKA
1
;
E ZHAO
2
;
Gaofeng SUN
2
;
Xinxue KONG
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University , Urumqi , Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830000 , China
2. Department of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases , Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Urumqi , Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830026 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Type 2 diabetes;
Characteristics of death;
Dynamic series;
ARIMA model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2024;35(4):107-110
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of type 2 diabetes death in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022, and to provide a theoretical basis for formulating diabetes prevention and control policies. Methods The crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, annual percentage change (APC), dynamic series and other indicators of 2 177 death data of type 2 diabetes collected in Urumqi from 2017 to 2022 were statistically analyzed. At the same time, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) prediction model was used to establish a model based on the death data from January 1, 2017 to June 30, 2022, to predict the monthly number of type 2 diabetes death in the second half of 2022, and compare it with the actual value to evaluate the model fitting effect. Results From 2017 to 2022, the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi reached 13.46/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 11.78/100 000. There was a significant difference in APC results for male mortality (P<0.05). The mortality rate of type 2 diabetes increased with age, and the mortality rate was higher in men than in women before the age of 70, and conversely, female mortality was higher than male. Retirees, married people, and people with junior high school education or below had higher mortality rates than others. The results of the standardized mortality dynamic series showed that the average rate of development in men was higher than that in the general population and women. By establishing the optimal ARIMA (0,1,1) prediction model, the model fit was qualified, while the accuracy would need to be improved. Conclusion From 2017 to 2022, the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes in Urumqi has an increasing trend. In order to realize the Healthy China Action, it is necessary to focus on health publicity and education for the elderly in the jurisdiction, prevent the occurrence of type 2 diabetes comorbidities, and reduce the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes.
