Construction and Validation of Prediction Model of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Based on Multivariate Regression Analysis in the First Trimester of Pregnancy
10.3969/j.issn.1671-7414.2024.01.029
- VernacularTitle:孕早期基于多因素回归分析构建妊娠期糖尿病预测模型及验证
- Author:
Menghua KUANG
1
;
Cong LU
;
Mengjiao KUANG
Author Information
1. 上海市第一人民医院妇产科,上海 201600
- Keywords:
gestational diabetes;
prediction model;
early pregnancy
- From:
Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine
2024;39(1):158-161,204
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)in the first trimester(12～13+6 weeks)of pregnancy,build a prediction model and verify it.Methods 433 singleton pregnant women delivered in the First People's Hospital of Shanghai from January 2020 to December 2020 were selected.They were divided into GDM group(n=188)pregnant women and non-GDM group(n=245)pregnant women according to a 75g glucose tolerance test results at 24～28 weeks of gestation.The electrochemiluminescence method measured serum biochemical indexes in early pregnancy,and glycosylated hemoglobinAlc was measured by ion exchange high-performance liquid chromatography.Using logistic regression analysis to screen the risk factors of GDM and construct a predictive model,draw the subject's work characteristic curve to analyze the model's predictive value.Ninety-five pregnant women who underwent prenatal examinations at Shanghai First People's Hospital from January 2021 to June 2021 were selected to validate the model's effectiveness.Results Compared with the non-GDM group,the level of body mass index(BMI)(23.41±11.17 kg/m2 vs 21.18±2.88 kg/m2),gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase(γ-GGT)(16.61±10.62 U/L vs 14.00±8.35 U/L),triacylglycerol(TG)(1.90±0.58 mmol/L vs 1.57±0.55 mmol/L),glycosylated hemoglobinAlc(HbAlc)(5.25%±0.47%vs 5.07±0.34%),fasting blood glucose(FBG)(4.68±0.47 mmol/L vs 4.36±0.36 mmol/L),LDL/HDL(1.53±0.49 vs 1.41±0.50),TG/HDL(2.93±0.59 vs 2.71±0.58),and TC/HDL(1.19±0.49 vs 0.95±0.45)in GDM group was increased,and the level of highdensity lipoprotein-cholesterol(HDL)(1.69±0.39 mmol/L vs 1.77±0.41 mmol/L)was decreased,the differences were statistically significant(t=2.613,2.818,5.874,4.582,17.701,2.458,3.815,5.310,-2.187,all P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that pre-pregnancy BMI,FBG,HbAlc,TG,and TC/HDL were all independent risk factors for predicting gestational diabetes(Waldχ2=4.48～35.549,all P＜0.05).The prediction model constructed based on the selected risk factors was as follows:Logit(P)=-20.562+0.085(BMI)+1.921(FBG)+1.57(HbAlc)+2.248(TG)-2.302(TC/HDL).The model predicts that the area under the curve of GDM was 0.800(95%CI:0.757～0.842),the optimal cutoff value was 0.352,and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.00%and 66.00%,respectively.Ninety-five pregnant women validated the model,and its sensitivity,specificity,and accuracy were 84.50%,91.00%,and 85.30%,respectively.Conclusion The prediction model constructed by BMI combined with FBG,HbAlc,TG and TC/HDL in the first trimester(12～13+6 weeks)of pregnancy has a high predictive value for GDM.
