Construction and validation of a scoring model for pathogen characteristics and short-term prognosis risk prediction of candidemia
10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.1385.2023.0626
- VernacularTitle:念珠菌菌血症病原菌特点及短期预后风险预测评分模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Jian-Xin MA
1
;
Xiao-Qiang LIN
;
Ming-Chi CAI
;
Yu-Zhen XU
;
Jun PENG
;
Sheng-Qiang LIANG
Author Information
1. 解放军联勤保障部队第909医院(厦门大学附属东南医院)检验科,福建漳州 363000
- Keywords:
candidaemia;
drug sensitivity test;
risk factors;
prediction;
scoring model
- From:
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army
2024;49(3):280-287
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the pathogenic characteristics and drug sensitivity of candidaemia,and construct a short-term mortality risk prediction scoring model.Methods The clinical data of patients with candidaemia admitted to the 909 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force from January 2011 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed,and the composition of pathogen composition,drug sensitivity test results and incidence of hospitalized patients were analyzed.324 cases of candidaemia were randomly divided into modeling group(190 cases)and validation group(134 cases),and the risk factors were screened by binary logistic regression.According to the odds ratio(OR)score,the 30 day mortality risk prediction scoring model was constructed,and the predictive performance of the model was verified both in modeling and validation groups.Results 356 strains of Candida including 126 strains of C.albicans(35.39%),79 strains of C.tropicalis(22.19%),74 strains of C.parapsilosis(20.79%),48 strains of C.glabrata(13.48%),14 strains of C.guilliermondii(3.93%),8 strains of C.krusei(2.25%),and 7 strains of other Candida(1.97%)were detected in 336 patients with candidemia.The incidence of candidaemia among hospitalized patients increased from 0.20 ‰ in 2011 to 0.48 ‰ in 2020.The resistance rate of candida to amphotericin B was significantly lower than that of fluconazole,voriconazole and itraconazole(P＜0.05).Among the 324 cases included in the model,95 patients died in 30 days after diagnosis,and the mortality rate was 29.32%.The proportion of males,fever,and parenteral nutrition in modeling group was significantly higher than that in validation group(P＜0.05),while the proportion of chronic lung disease and surgical history within one month were lower than those in validation group(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that chronic renal failure,mechanical ventilation,severe neutropenia,failure to receive anti-fungal treatment within 72 hours,and APACHE Ⅱ≥20 were risk factors for short-term death of candidaemia,the OR values were 3.179,1.970,2.979,2.080,and 2.399,and the risk scores were 6,4,6,4,and 5,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk scoring model for modeling group was 0.792(95%CI 0.721-0.862),and the result of Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test was P=0.305;The AUC of validation group was 0.796(95%CI 0.735-0.898),and the H-L test result was P=0.329.A risk score≤8 indicated a low risk group for short-term mortality,a score of 9-15 indicated a medium risk group,and a score≥16 indicated a high risk group.Conclusions The incidence of candidemia in hospitalized patients is increasing and the mortality is high.The risk prediction score model can effectively predict the short-term prognosis and facilitate the early identification of the prognosis.
