Risk factors for ketoacidosis in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus and establishment of a predictive model
10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2308042
- VernacularTitle:儿童青少年1型糖尿病患儿发生酮症酸中毒的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立
- Author:
Xiao-Jia WANG
1
;
Ai-Hong GONG
;
Sheng-Hong QI
;
Lan LIU
Author Information
1. 宁夏医科大学总医院,宁夏银川 750004;宁夏医科大学公共卫生学院,宁夏银川 750004
- Keywords:
Type 1 diabetes mellitus;
Ketoacidosis;
Risk factor;
Nomogram;
Child;
Adolescent
- From:
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics
2024;26(1):62-66
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors for diabetic ketoacidosis(DKA)in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus(T1DM)and to establish a model for predicting the risk of DKA.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 217 children/adolescents with T1DM who were admitted to General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from January 2018 to December 2021.Among the 217 children/adolescents,169 cases with DKA were included as the DKA group and 48 cases without DKA were included as the non-DKA group.The risk factors for DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM were analyzed,and a nomogram model was established for predicting the risk of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM.Results For the 217 children/adolescents with T1DM,the incidence rate of DKA was 77.9%(169/217).The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high levels of random blood glucose,hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c),blood ketone body,and triglyceride on admission were closely associated with the development of DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM(OR=1.156,3.203×1015,20.131,and 9.519 respectively;P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model had a C-statistic of 0.95,with a mean absolute error of 0.004 between the risk of DKA predicted by the nomogram model and the actual risk of DKA,indicating that the model had a good overall prediction ability.Conclusions High levels of random blood glucose,HbA1c,blood ketone body,and triglyceride on admission are closely associated with the development of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM,and targeted intervention measures should be developed to reduce the risk of DKA.
