Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica（CMM）. Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design， process optimization， and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms， with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion， tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years， this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties， offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM， analyzes its advantages， disadvantages， and challenges in this domain， and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies， while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.

Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease. The heterotopic colonization of periodontal pathogens results in the development of several systemic diseases. Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis), a key pathogen for periodontitis, has been linked to the development of various cancers, such as oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), lung cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, and prostate cancer. P. gingivalis promote the progression of tumor through various mechanisms, P. gingivalis regulates proteins targeting cell cycle and apoptosis to promote proliferation of tumor cells directly, enhances tumor stemness by upregulating the expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) and cluster of differentiation 133 (CD133), activates inflammasome and p38/c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1(JNK) pathways, regulates tumor-associated neutrophil (TAN) polarization to remodel the tumor microenvironment, regulates epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) to promote tumor metastasis, remodel macrophage function to evade host immune response, and regulates multi-communicating with symbiotic bacteria. In addition, P. gingivalis accelerates the progression of esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and prostate cancer by promoting cell proliferation, inhibiting apoptosis, inducing chronic inflammation, and escaping immunity. However, the oral microbiome is a complex system, whether the interactions between oral bacteria affect tumor progression needs to be further investigated.

ObjectiveHistorically documented Zhejiang Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma（Baizhu） possesses premium characteristics such as phoenix-like head and crane-like neck， pronounced sweetness， and fragrant aroma. However， its current market circulation is low， and the processed products with Zhejiang-style characteristics are at the risk of being lost. This study aims to preserve the ancient Zhejiang-style processing techniques and evaluate them using modern scientific methods. MethodsMultidimensional intelligent sensory evaluation was used to digitally characterize the "quality-structure" of the external appearance of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and the "odor-taste" of the internal quality of its decoction pieces（slices）， and the appearance parameters were digitally characterized by colorimeter， texture analyzer， electronic nose and electronic tongue， the chemical composition was analyzed via ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry（UPLC-Q-TOF-MS/MS）. Then， cluster analysis on the differences in odor between the medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and decoction pieces（slices） of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu was conducted， as well as the differences in taste between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of the decoction pieces（slices）， and the correlation analysis of chroma value-alcohol-soluble extract content-component response value. ResultsThe nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu had a dark brown to black epidermis， a brownish-yellow to brownish-gray cross-section， a slightly tough texture， a faint odor， and a slightly sweet， bitter and pungent taste. Texture analyzer measurements revealed minimal adhesion and maximum recovery in the middle section of the characteristic processed Baizhu， consistent with the processing endpoint of thorough steaming and cooking. The head section showed the highest internal hardness， elasticity and chewiness， indicating a denser texture in this area. The electronic nose sensor could clearly distinguish the difference between the medicinal materials and its decoction pieces， with a more significant clustering effect at 60 ℃ for 30 minutes compared to ambient temperature headspace for 2 hours， highlighting the significant impact of the baking degree before slicing on the quality. The electronic tongue taste signal map clearly distinguished the differences between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu decoction pieces， and the addition of auxiliary materials during processing could enhance its alcohol-soluble extract content. A total of 82 chemical components were identified in the characteristic processed Baizhu. After processing， the contents of 58 components increased， while 24 components decreased. Correlation analysis revealed significant negative correlations（P<0.01） between ethanol-soluble extract content and colorimetric values of brightness（L^*）， yellow-bule value（b^*）， and total color difference（E^*_ab）. E^*_ab showed marked negative correlations（P<0.05） with the response values of isochlorogenic acid A and C. ConclusionThis study establishes a modern intelligent sensory evaluation model for multidimensional holographic characterization of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu， clarifying the correlation between increased isochlorogenic acid content and the visual color appearance after different steaming cycles， as well as its intrinsic alcohol-soluble extracts. This provides a reference for quality evaluation and processing standards of the Zhejiang-style characteristic processed products.

Background: In acute and chronic renal inflammatory diseases, the activation of inflammatory cells is involved in the defect of erythropoietin (EPO) production. Ras guanine nucleotide-releasing protein-4 (RasGRP4) promotes renal inflammatory injury in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aimed to investigate the role and mechanism of RasGRP4 in the production of renal EPO in diabetes. Methods: The degree of tissue injury was observed by pathological staining. Inflammatory cell infiltration was analyzed by immunohistochemical staining. Serum EPO levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and EPO production and renal interstitial fibrosis were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting were used to detect the expression of key inflammatory factors and the activation of signaling pathways. In vitro, the interaction between peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and C3H10T1/2 cells was investigated via cell coculture experiments. Results: RasGRP4 decreased the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 2-alpha (HIF2A) via the ubiquitination–proteasome degradation pathway and promoted myofibroblastic transformation by activating critical inflammatory pathways, consequently reducing the production of EPO in T2DM mice. Conclusion RasGRP4 participates in the production of renal EPO in diabetic mice by affecting the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in PBMCs, degrading HIF2A, and promoting the myofibroblastic transformation of C3H10T1/2 cells.

Background/Aims: Endoscopic radiofrequency ablation (ERFA) is a treatment option for superficial esophageal squamous cell neoplasia (ESCN), with a relatively low risk of stenosis; however, the long-term outcomes remain unclear. We aimed to compare the long-term outcomes of patients with widespread superficial ESCN who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) or ERFA. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with superficial ESCN who underwent ESD or ERFA between January 2015 and December 2021. The primary outcome measure was recurrence-free survival. Results: Ninety-two and 33 patients with superficial ESCN underwent ESD and ERFA, respectively. The en bloc, R0, and curative resection rates for ESD were 100.0%, 90.2%, and 76.1%, respectively. At 12 months, the complete response rate was comparable between the two groups (94.6% vs 90.9%, p=0.748). During a median follow-up of 66 months, recurrence-free survival was significantly longer in the ESD group than in the ERFA group (p=0.004), while no significant differences in overall survival (p=0.845) and disease-specific survival (p=0.494) were observed.Preoperative diagnosis of intramucosal cancer (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.55; vs high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia) was an independent predictor of recurrence. Significantly fewer patients in the ERFA group experienced stenosis compare to ESD group (15.2% vs 38.0%, p=0.016). Conclusions The risk of recurrence was higher for ERFA than ESD for ESCN but overall survival was not affected. The risk of esophageal stenosis was significantly lower for patients who underwent ERFA.

Objective: Huntington’s disease (HD) is characterized by motor, cognitive, and neuropsychiatric symptoms. Oculomotor impairments and gait variability have been independently considered as potential markers in HD. However, an integrated analysis of eye movement and gait is lacking. We performed multiple examinations of eye movement and gait variability in HTT mutation carriers, analyzed the consistency between these parameters and clinical severity, and then examined the associations between oculomotor impairments and gait deficits. Methods: We included 7 patients with pre-HD, 30 patients with HD and 30 age-matched controls. We collected demographic data and assessed the Unified Huntington’s Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) score. Examinations, including saccades, smooth pursuit tests, and optokinetic (OPK) tests, were performed to evaluate eye movement function. The parameters of gait include stride length, walking velocity, step deviation, step length, and gait phase. Results: HD patients have significant impairments in the latency and velocity of saccades, the gain of smooth pursuit, and the gain and slow phase velocities of OPK tests. Only the speed of saccades significantly differed between pre-HD patients and controls. There are significant impairments in stride length, walking velocity, step length, and gait phase in HD patients. The parameters of eye movement and gait variability in HD patients were consistent with the UHDRS scores. There were significant correlations between eye movement and gait parameters. Conclusion Our results show that eye movement and gait are impaired in HD patients and that the speed of saccades is impaired early in pre-HD. Eye movement and gait abnormalities in HD patients are significantly correlated with clinical disease severity.

Background: and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking. Methods: This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance. Results: Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal. Conclusions The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy.

Background: and Purpose This study aimed to investigate the association between residual inflammatory risk (RIR) and vulnerable plaques using high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) in symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS). Methods: This retrospective study included 70%–99% symptomatic ICAS patients hospitalized from January 2016 to December 2022. Patients were classified into four groups based on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C): residual cholesterol inflammatory risk (RCIR, hs-CRP ≥3 mg/L and LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L), RIR (hs-CRP ≥3 mg/L and LDL-C <2.6 mmol/L), residual cholesterol risk (RCR, hs-CRP <3 mg/L and LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L), and no residual risk (NRR, hs-CRP <3 mg/L and LDL-C <2.6 mmol/L). Vulnerable plaque features on HRMRI included positive remodeling, diffuse distribution, intraplaque hemorrhage, and strong enhancement. Results: Among 336 included patients, 21, 60, 58, and 197 were assigned to the RCIR, RIR, RCR, and NRR groups, respectively. Patients with RCIR (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.606; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.346–9.662; P=0.011) and RIR (aOR, 3.361; 95% CI, 1.774–6.368, P<0.001) had higher risks of strong enhancement than those with NRR. Additionally, patients with RCIR (aOR, 2.965; 95% CI, 1.060–8.297; P=0.038) were more likely to have intraplaque hemorrhage compared with those with NRR. In the sensitivity analysis, RCR (aOR, 2.595; 95% CI, 1.201–5.608; P=0.015) exhibited an additional correlation with an increased risk of intraplaque hemorrhage. Conclusion In patients with symptomatic ICAS, RIR is associated with a higher risk of intraplaque hemorrhage and strong enhancement, indicating an increased vulnerability to atherosclerotic plaques.