PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic implications of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels that are inconsistent with Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumor (RECIST) responses in metastatic colorectal cancer patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 360 patients with at least one measurable lesion who received first-line palliative chemotherapy. CEA-response was defined as CEA-complete response (CR; CEA normalization), CEA-partial response (PR; ≥ 50% decrease in CEA levels), CEA-progressive disease (PD; ≥ 50% increase in CEA levels), and CEA-stable disease (SD; non-CR/PR/PD). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated according to CEA-response. RESULTS: In RECIST-PR patients, poorer CEA-response was associated with disease progression at the subsequent evaluation. In RECIST-SD patients, CEA-CR and -PR were associated with lower disease progression rates than CEA-PD at the subsequent evaluation. Correlations between survival outcome and CEA-response in same-category RECIST patients were assessed. In RECIST-PR patients, discordant CEA-response (CEA-PD/SD) was associated with poorer survival than CEA-CR/PR (median OS and PFS, 44.0 and 15.4 [CEA-CR], 28.9 and 12.5 [CEA-PR], 21.0 and 9.8 [CEA-SD], and 13.0 and 7.0 [CEA-PD] months, respectively; all p < 0.001). In RECIST-SD patients, favorable CEA-response produced better survival (median OS and PFS, 26.8 and 21.0 [CEA-CR], 21.0 and 11.0 [CEA-PR], 16.1 and 8.2 [CEA-SD], and 12.2 and 6.0 [CEA-PD] months, respectively; all p < 0.001). RECIST-PD patients with CEA-CR showed longer OS than those with CEA-PD. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that discordant CEA-response is a powerful prognostic factor for RECIST-PR and RECIST-SD patients. CONCLUSION: Among patients of the same RECIST-response categories, CEA-response patterns are significantly prognostic and strongly predictive of subsequent evaluation outcomes.
Carcinoembryonic Antigen ; Colorectal Neoplasms ; Disease Progression ; Disease-Free Survival ; Drug Therapy ; Humans ; Multivariate Analysis ; Prognosis ; Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors ; Retrospective Studies

A prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is dismal that the median survival is 2 to 4 months without treatment. Sorafenib, the standard regimen of advanced HCC, can prolong median survival only 1.5 months. A 50-year-old man with a history of chronic hepatitis B was diagnosed advanced HCC with PVTT. By a multidisciplinary medical team approach, the combination of 3-demensional conformal radiation therapy with sequential sorafenib was challenged. 4 months after initiation of treatment, he achieved partial response as modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors criteria. Sorafenib was continued so far, and stable disease has been maintained up to now, without significant adverse effect.
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* ; Hepatitis B, Chronic ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Portal Vein* ; Prognosis* ; Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors ; Thrombosis

Objective To establish a nomogram for predicting the distant metastasis risk of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) in elderly patients. Methods We extracted data of patients with diagnosis of pNETs at age ≥65 years old between 1973 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All eligible patients were divided randomly into a training cohort and validation cohort. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on the training cohort to identify independent factors for distant metastasis. A nomogram was developed based on the independent risk factors using rms packages of R software, and was validated internally by the training cohort and externally by the validation cohort using C-index and calibration curves. Results A total of 411 elderly patients were identified, of which 260 were assigned to training cohort and 151 to validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated the tumor site (body/tail of pancreas: odds ratio [
Aged ; Humans ; Neoplasm Staging ; Nomograms ; Pancreatic Neoplasms ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most prevalent malignancies and frequent causes of death worldwide. Treatment options of hepatocellular carcinoma consist of locoregional therapy, surgical resection, liver transplantation, and systemic therapy. Assessment of tumor response is required in patients receiving locoregional and systemic therapy. The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 is widely used tumor response evaluation criteria. However, the RECIST does not reflect the extent of tumor necrosis after some locoregional therapies and molecular targeted agents. The Modified RECIST (mRECIST), which has the concept of viable tumor, was introduced in order to overcome this problem. The mRECIST were developed on the basis of RECIST version 1.1 and only tumoral tissue showing contrast uptake in arterial phase of dynamic radiologic imaging techniques was measured to assess tumor response. Recently, immune checkpoint inhibitors have emerged as a promising therapeutic modality for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. To identify tumor response after immunotherapy, immune RECIST (iRECIST) has been proposed as consensusbased criteria. After achieving complete response after curative treatment, optimal surveillance was needed to detect recurrence. Individualized surveillance schedule should be considered, taking into consideration the risk factors of the patient and the risk associated with the treatment modalities.
Appointments and Schedules ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; Cause of Death ; Humans ; Immunotherapy ; Liver Transplantation ; Necrosis ; Prognosis ; Radiography ; Recurrence ; Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors ; Risk Factors

Using a population-based cancer registry, Thuret et al. developed 3 nomograms for estimating cancer-specific mortality in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma. In the initial cohort, only 23.0% of the patients were treated with inguinal lymphadenectomy and had pN stage. To generalize the prediction models in clinical practice, we evaluated the performance of the 3 nomograms in a series of penile cancer patients who were treated with definitive surgery. Clinicopathologic information was obtained from 160 M0 penile cancer patients who underwent primary tumor excision and regional lymphadenectomy between 1990 and 2008. The predicted probabilities of cancer-specific mortality were calculated from 3 nomograms that were based on different disease stage definitions and tumor grade. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness were assessed to compare model performance. The discrimination ability was similar in nomograms using the TNM classification or American Joint Committee on Cancer staging (Harrell's concordance index = 0.817 and 0.832, respectively), whereas it was inferior for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results staging (Harrell's concordance index = 0.728). Better agreement with the observed cancer-specific mortality was shown for the model consisting of TNM classification and tumor grade, which also achieved favorable clinical net benefit, with a threshold probability in the range of 0 to 42%. The nomogram consisting of TNM classification and tumor grading was shown to have better performance for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients who underwent definitive surgery. Our data support the integration of this model in decision-making and trial design.
Aged ; Humans ; Lymph Node Excision ; Male ; Neoplasm Grading ; Nomograms ; Penile Neoplasms ; diagnosis ; mortality ; surgery ; Prognosis ; Treatment Outcome

BACKGROUND: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related non-Hodgkin lymphoma (AR-NHL) is a high-risk factor for morbidity and mortality in patients with AIDS. This study aimed to determine the prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and to develop a prognostic nomogram incorporating computed tomography imaging features in patients with acquired immune deficiency syndrome-related non-Hodgkin lymphoma (AR-NHL). METHODS: A total of 121 AR-NHL patients between July 2012 and November 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical and radiological independent predictors of OS were confirmed using multivariable Cox analysis. A prognostic nomogram was constructed based on the above clinical and radiological factors and then provided optimum accuracy in predicting OS. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell C-statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to determine median OS. The prognostic value of adjuvant therapy was evaluated in different subgroups. RESULTS: In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, involvement of mediastinal or hilar lymph nodes, liver, necrosis in the lesions, the treatment with chemotherapy, and the CD4 ≤100 cells/μL were independent risk factors for poor OS (all P < 0.050). The predictive nomogram based on Cox regression has good discrimination (Harrell C-index = 0.716) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.620) in high- and low-risk groups. Only patients in the high-risk group who received adjuvant chemotherapy had a significantly better survival outcome. CONCLUSION A survival-predicting nomogram was developed in this study, which was effective in assessing the survival outcomes of patients with AR-NHL. Notably, decision-making of chemotherapy regimens and more frequent follow-up should be considered in the high-risk group determined by this model.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ; Humans ; Lymphoma, Non-Hodgkin ; Neoplasm Staging ; Nomograms ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies

To develop a survival time prediction model for patients with ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma after surgery. A retrospective analysis of 5906 postoperative patients with ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 was performed. The independent risk factors for long-term survival were analyzed with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model. The nomogram of 3-year and 5-year survival was developed by using R language. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and were used to test the discrimination of the model and the calibration diagram was used to evaluate the degree of calibration of the prediction model. The survival curves was conducted by the risk factors. Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that age, race, histological grade (poorly differentiated and undifferentiated), stage T (T2a, T2b, T2c, T3a, T3b and T3c), and stage M (M1) were independent factors for the prognosis of patients with ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma after surgery. A nomogram was developed by the R language tool for predicting the 3-year and survival of patients through age, race, histological classification, stage T and stage M. The C-index was 0.688 and the areas under ROC curve of the nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year survival were 0.708 and 0.716, respectively. The results of the calibration indicated that the predicted values were consistent with the actual values in the prediction models. The survival time of patients with high-risk factors was shorter than that of patients with low-risk factors (<0.05). The developed nomogram in this study can be used to predict 3-year and 5-year survival of postoperative patients with ovarian serous cystadenocarcinoma, and it may be beneficial to guide clinical treatment.
Cystadenocarcinoma, Serous/surgery* ; Humans ; Neoplasm Staging ; Nomograms ; Prognosis ; ROC Curve ; Retrospective Studies ; SEER Program ; Survival Rate

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting outcomes of patients with gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (G-NENs). METHODS: We retrospectively collected the clinical data from 490 patients with the diagnosis of G-NEN at our medical center from 2000 to 2021. Log-rank test was used to analyze the overall survival (OS) of the patients. The independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of G-NEN were identified by Cox regression analysis to construct the prognostic nomogram, whose performance was evaluated using the C-index, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curve, DCA, and AUDC. RESULTS: Among the 490 G-NEN patients (mean age of 58.6±10.92 years, including 346 male and 144 female patients), 130 (26.5%) had NET G1, 54 (11.0%) had NET G2, 206 (42.0%) had NEC, and 100 (20.5%) had MiNEN. None of the patients had NET G3. The numbers of patients in stage Ⅰ-Ⅳ were 222 (45.3%), 75 (15.3%), 130 (26.5%), and 63 (12.9%), respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified age, pathological grade, tumor location, depth of invasion, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and F-NLR as independent risk factors affecting the survival of the patients (P < 0.05). The C-index of the prognostic nomogram was 0.829 (95% CI: 0.800-0.858), and its AUC for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year OS were 0.883, 0.895 and 0.944, respectively. The calibration curve confirmed a good consistency between the model prediction results and the actual observations. For predicting 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS, the TNM staging system and the nomogram had AUC of 0.033 vs 0.0218, 0.191 vs 0.148, and 0.248 vs 0.197, respectively, suggesting higher net benefit and better clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION The prognostic nomogram established in this study has good predictive performance and clinical value to facilitate prognostic evaluation of individual patients with G-NEN.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Nomograms ; Retrospective Studies ; Prognosis ; Neoplasm Staging ; Stomach Neoplasms/pathology*

Objective: To establish a novel nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (g-NEN). Methods: A case control study was conducted. Clinicopathological and follow-up data of patients with g-NEN who were treated in two academic medical centers in Southern China between July 2008 and June 2018 were retrospectively collected, including 174 patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and 102 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. Univariate survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis using Cox regression were performed to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was subsequently established based on prognostic factors. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verify the performance of the model according to differentiation, calibration and clinical utility. Results: A total of 276 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 189 patients were male and 87 were female. The age at diagnosis was below 60 years old in 150 patients and 60 years or older in 126 patients. There were patients diagnosed with gastric neuroendocrine carcinoma (g-NEC) and 101 patients with gastric neuroendocrine tumor (g-NET). The number of patients with primary tumor locating at upper, middle and lower parts of stomach was 131, 98 and 47, respectively. As for TNM stage, 72 patients were categorized as stage I, 26 patients stage II, 93 patients stage III, and 85 patients stage IV. Univariate analysis indicated that age, pathological type, primary site, Ki-67 index, T stage, N stage, and M stage were associated with overall survival of g-NEN patients (all P<0.05). Multivariate regression analysis testified that high Ki-67 index, advanced T stage and advanced M stage were independent prognostic factors (all P<0.05). The C-index of the nomogram was 0.806 (95%CI: 0.769-0.863). The calibration curve of the nomogram showed that the predicted survival rate was consistent with the actual survival rate in g-NEN patients. The ROC curves and DCA showed that the nomogram had better differentiation and clinical utility than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th TNM staging system (the area under the ROC curve was 0.862 vs. 0.792). Conclusion: The first nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with g-NEN is established and verified in this study, which provides individual prediction of 3-year overall survival rate and is applicable to both g-NET and g-NEC patients.
Case-Control Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Staging ; Neuroendocrine Tumors ; Nomograms ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies

PURPOSE: This study was designed to estimate the value of a second transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) procedure in patients with initially diagnosed T1 high-grade bladder cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between August 2009 and January 2013, a total of 29 patients with T1 high-grade bladder cancer prospectively underwent a second TURBT procedure. Evaluation included the presence of previously undetected residual tumor, changes to histopathological staging or grading, and tumor location. Recurrence-free and progression-free survival curves were generated to compare the prognosis between the groups with and without residual lesions by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Of 29 patients, 22 patients (75.9%) had residual disease after the second TURBT. Staging was as follows: no tumor, 7 (24.1%); Ta, 5 (17.2%); T1, 6 (20.7%); Tis, 6 (20.7%); Ta+Tis, 1 (3.4%); T1+Tis, 1 (3.4%); and > or =T2, 3 (10.3%). The muscle layer was included in the surgical specimen after the initial TURBT in 24 patients (82.7%). In three patients whose cancer was upstaged to pT2 after the second TURBT, the initial surgical specimen contained the muscle layer. In the group with residual lesions, the 3-year recurrence-free survival and 3-year progression-free survival rates were 50% and 66.9%, respectively, whereas these rates were 68.6% and 68.6%, respectively, in the group without residual lesions. This difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Initial TURBT does not seem to be enough to control T1 high-grade bladder cancer. Therefore, a routine second TURBT procedure should be recommended in patients with T1 high-grade bladder cancer to accomplish adequate tumor resection and to identify patients who may need to undergo prompt cystectomy.
Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cystectomy/methods ; Female ; Humans ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Grading ; Neoplasm Invasiveness ; Neoplasm Staging ; Neoplasm, Residual ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Reoperation/methods ; Treatment Outcome ; Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/pathology/*surgery