1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Intervention Strategies for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction Using Combined Classical Formulas Based on the Theory of "Disease of Both Blood and Water"
Yuzhi JIA ; Qingyong HE ; Jie WANG ; Xin ZHAO ; Ziyi WANG ; Dongmei LI ; Junqiao AN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(4):370-374
Based on the theory of "disease of both blood and water" in Essentials from the Golden Cabinet (《金匮要略》), and in combination with the dynamic syndrome evolution of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), this paper systematically clarifies the pathomechanism of HFpEF, characterized by yang deficiency as the root, blood stasis as the pivotal factor and water retention as the manifestation. Accordingly, the therapeutic principles have been proposed, which are warming yang and banking up original qi to consolidate the root, activating blood and unblocking collaterals to smooth the mechanism, and promoting urination and regulating pivot to remove the branch. On this basis, a compound formula structure of "one monarch, one minister and one assistant" is established, forming an integrated intervention strategy that synergistically combines the three methods of warming yang, activating blood, and promoting urination through combined classical formulas. Zhenwu Decoction (真武汤), which warms yang and dissolves rheum, is used to consolidate the root and directly target the source of yang deficiency, serving as the monarch; Guizhi Fuling Pills (桂枝茯苓丸), which activates blood, promotes urination and unblocks the pivot, assists in interrupting the binding of blood stasis and water retention, serving as the minister; Tingli Dazao Xiefei Decoction (葶苈大枣泻肺汤), which regulates qi, disperses retained fluids, and eliminates the manifestation, alleviates acute water-retention symptoms, serving as the assistant. This compound formula is warming without being drying, diuretic without being drastic, and dispels stasis without consuming blood, thereby achieving the therapeutic effects of warming yang, activating blood, and promoting urination.
3.Association between urinary levels of six per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus
Ziyi LIU ; Luming YAN ; Tingting JIANG ; Yaling LI ; Chao ZHANG ; Jiahu HAO
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):174-181
Background Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can influence gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); however, current studies on their association are limited and have yielded inconsistent findings. Objective To investigate the association between maternal exposure to PFAS, as measured by urinary concentrations in early pregnancy, and the risk of developing GDM. Methods Based on the Wuhu Birth Cohort in Anhui Province conducted between 2020 and 2023, this study included
4.The Potential Role of Immune Checkpoint Molecules in the Pathogenesis of Autoimmune Hepatitis and in Targeted Therapy
Haixia LI ; Aiping TIAN ; Miao XUE ; Ziyi LI ; Xiaorong MAO
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(2):512-518
Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic, immune-mediated liver injury of unknown etiology. The onset of this disease involves the activation and recruitment of diverse immune and non-immune cells, which in turn trigger hepatic damage. Immune checkpoint molecules (ICM) are expressed on the surface of multiple cell types. By regulating cellular functional states, they help limit the intensity and duration of immune responses, thereby preventing excessive inflammation and tissue damage, and maintaining immune homeostasis. In AIH, however, this natural "braking" mechanism is impaired, leading to aberrant activation of both immune and non-immune cells and the breakdown of immune homeostasis. Consequently, ICM are likely to play a critical role in the pathogenesis of AIH. A deeper understanding of the function of ICM in AIH not onlyadvances our insight into the disease mechanism, but also suggests that targeting these molecules may represent a promising therapeutic strategy for the treatment of AIH.
5.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
6.Progress of researches on Triatoma rubrofasciata-transmitted trypanosomes
Ziyi WANG ; Yong SHEN ; Lirong HUANG ; Yuanyuan LI ; Di WU ; Qin LIU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(2):213-218
Triatoma rubrofasciata is currently the most widely distributed species of Triatoma worldwide, and it is also widespread in southern China. T. rubrofasciata has been proven to transmit Trypanosoma cruzi, and is one of vectors transmitting Chagas disease, which poses a potential risk for transmission of imported Chagas disease in China. Findings from latest studies have shown that T. rubrofasciata naturally infects T. lewisi, T. conorhini, and T. rangeli, which undoubtedly increases significant risks of and challenges to trypanosomiasis control in China. This article briefly describes the species of T. rubrofasciata-transmitted trypanosomes, and summarizes the epidemiological characteristics of trypanosomiasis, so as to provide insights into T. rubrofasciata-transmitted trypanosomiasis surveillance and control, and prevention of trypanosomiasis development and transmission in China.
7.DIA Proteomic Profiling on Staged Regulatory Effect of Tonifying Deficiency and Dredging Collaterals Method on Liver Fibrosis in Rats Based on Theory of "Zhu Ke Jiao"
Xin WANG ; Pengyu ZHU ; Li WEN ; Jibin LIU ; Aochun YUE ; Ziyi CHEN ; Jing ZHANG ; Li ZHU ; Quansheng FENG ; Cen JIANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(14):119-132
ObjectiveThis paper aims to investigate the differential mechanisms underlying the staged therapeutic effects of Qijia Rougan formula on liver fibrosis using proteomic technology. MethodsThe staged rat model of liver fibrosis was established by subcutaneous injection of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) and olive oil. One hundred and four SD rats were randomized into thirteen groups:a normal group,a two-week model group,a four-week model group,a six-week model group,an eight-week model group,a two-week Qijia Rougan formula group,a four-week Qijia Rougan formula group,a six-week Qijia Rougan formula group,an eight-week Qijia Rougan formula group,a two-week compound Biejia Ruangan tablet group,a four-week Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet group,a six-week Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet group,and an eight-week compound Biejia Ruangan tablet group. After two weeks of drug intervention,liver tissue and abdominal aortic blood samples were collected from the rats for testing. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining,Masson staining,and Picro Sirius red staining were used to observe pathological damage and collagen fiber deposition in liver tissues. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was employed to detect the contents of fibrosis markers in liver tissues. The contents of liver function indicators in the serum were measured using a fully automated biochemical analyzer,and the levels of liver fibrosis indicators in the serum were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Liver tissues from the normal group,each model group,and each Qijia Rougan formula group were subjected to label-free quantitative proteomic analysis to identify differential proteins among the groups,with key proteins validated by Western blot. Finally,bioinformatics analysis was performed on the differential proteins. Results(1) The staged rat model of liver fibrosis constructed with CCl4 and olive oil showed pathological results at the 2nd,4th,6th,and 8th weeks of modeling that were consistent with the Metavir standards for the F1,F2,F3,and F4 stages. Compared with those in the normal control group,the protein expressions of α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) and Collagen Ⅰ were significantly increased in each stage (P<0.05). The levels of liver function indicators in the serum,including alanine aminotransferase (ALT),aspartate aminotransferase (AST),alkaline phosphatase (ALP),direct bilirubin (DBIL),and total bilirubin (TBil) in each model group,were significantly elevated in each stage (P<0.01). The levels of liver fibrosis indicators in the serum,including procollagen Ⅲ peptide (PⅢP),type Ⅳ collagen(Ⅳ-C),hyaluronic acid (HA),and laminin (LN) in each model group,were significantly increased in each stage (P<0.05,P<0.01). This study successfully established a staged rat model of liver fibrosis. (2) Compared with the model groups at each stage,the administration groups showed a reduction in hepatocyte ballooning degeneration,a more orderly arrangement of hepatocytes,and a decrease of inflammatory cell infiltration. The blue-stained collagen fibers became significantly thinner and finer,with reduced and narrowed fibrous septa. The areas of collagen fibers and Picro Sirius red staining were reduced (P<0.05). The positive areas of α-SMA and Collagen Ⅰ expression were significantly decreased (P<0.05). The levels of ALT,AST,ALP,DBIL,and TBil in the rats of the model groups at each stage were significantly reduced (P<0.05,P<0.01). The levels of PⅢP,Ⅳ-C,HA,and LN in the rats of the model groups at each stage were significantly decreased (P<0.05). Among these,the improvements in all indicators were most significant in the F3 stage (P<0.01).(3) The proteomic results show that a total of 165 differential proteins exhibit a callback trend when comparing the model groups at four stages with the normal group,and when comparing the Qijia Rougan formula group with the model group. Western blot analysis reveals that the levels of NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1),mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (MAPK1),arginase 1 (Arg1),and glutathione S-transferase α1 (GSTA1) were consistent with the proteomic results. Bioinformatics results reveal that 165 differentially expressed proteins are enriched in multiple signaling pathways. Notably,signaling pathways such as drug metabolism-cytochrome P450,arginine biosynthesis,and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway were found to be closely associated with liver fibrosis,suggesting that the Qijia Rougan formula may exert its staged regulatory effects on liver fibrosis by regulating these pathways. ConclusionThe Qijia Rougan formula may achieve staged regulation of liver fibrosis by regulating drug metabolism-cytochrome P450,arginine biosynthesis,and the PPAR signaling pathway.
8.Investigation on the current status of residents′ cognition of doctor-patient relationship and its influencing factors in a certain area of Guangxi under the background of Healthy China
Wuzhao CHEN ; Ziwan NONG ; Xiaoyan PAN ; Li PAN ; Xinyu BAI ; Ziyi YANG
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration 2025;41(4):294-301
Objective:To understand the current status of residents′ cognition of doctor-patient relationship and its influencing factors in a certain area of Guangxi under the background of Healthy China, so as to provide references for building the harmonious doctor-patient relationship.Methods:Convenience sampling was used to conduct an online questionnaire survey among permanent residents in a certain area of Guangxi from June 1 to July 31, 2023. The survey included residents′ sociodemographic characteristics and their perceptions of doctor-patient relationships. A logistic regression model was employed to analyze the influencing factors of residents′ perceptions of doctor-patient relationships.Results:A total of 114 796 residents participated in the survey. Among them, 44.1% (50 593) believed that the current doctor-patient relationship was harmonious, 47.8% (54 874) considered it neutral, and 8.1% (9 329) perceived it as discordant. The multinomial logistic regression model revealed that males, urban residents, older age groups, unmarried individuals, those with higher education levels, and those in poor health were more likely to perceive the doctor-patient relationship as discordant( P<0.05). Residents who valued health-related behaviors and knowledge, as well as those aware of health policies, were more likely to agree that the doctor-patient relationship was harmonious( P<0.05). Conclusions:Over 90% of residents in a certain area of Guangxi perceived the current doctor-patient relationship as either harmonious or neutral. Strengthening health education and enhancing the promotion of health policies can positively contribute to a harmonious doctor-patient relationship.
9.Association between dynamic indexes of maternal progesterone in the first trimester of pregnancy and fetal head circumference growth and development
Hui NIU ; Juan XIN ; Jinlu LIANG ; Jiayuan FENG ; Sijing ZHU ; Xiaoxue LI ; Yin YANG ; Liu FANG ; Mengfei SUN ; Ziyi CHEN ; Wenfang YANG
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2025;46(5):871-879
Objective To explore the association between dynamic indexes of maternal progesterone in early pregnancy and the average level and growth rate of fetal head circumference(HC)in mid-and late pregnancy.Methods This study adopted a retrospective cohort design and included 255 singleton pregnant women in the maternal and infant cohort of The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from January 2015 to December 2024.The progesterone levels of their early venous blood were detected and divided into two groups of progesterone trajectories,namely,fluctuating type and increasing type,by morphology.The dynamic indicators of progesterone in early pregnancy were constructed:cumulative dynamic deviation index in the first trimester(CDDI-P1T),gestational age at progesterone peak(GA-PP),and maximal relative progesterone decline in the first trimester(MRD-P1T).The average head circumference level and linear growth rate of the fetuses in the middle and late pregnancy were calculated.Generalized linear regression(GLM)was used to analyze the linear association between progesterone dynamic indicators and head circumference development.The key gestational weeks of progesterone affecting fetal head development were explored by linear regression of gestational weeks.Ordinary least squares(OLS)regression and restricted cubic spline(RCS)plots were used to draw the nonlinear association between progesterone dynamic indicators and head circumference.Results Among the 255 pregnant women included,92.5%of the progesterone trajectories in early pregnancy were fluctuating,and 7.5%were increasing.The growth rates of the increasing progesterone trajectory group were higher in the second and third trimesters than in the fluctuating group,but the differences were not statistically significant(all P>0.05).GLM analysis showed that for every 1 unit increase in CDDI-P1T,the head circumference in the middle and late pregnancy increased significantly by 1.574 cm and 1.193 cm(Z=3.714,2.885,P<0.01).The delay of GA-PP was negatively correlated with the head circumference in the middle pregnancy(β=-0.190 cm,95%CI:-0.339--0.041,P=0.010)but positively correlated with the head circumference growth rate in the late pregnancy(β=0.022 cm/week,95%CI:0.003-0.041,P=0.025).A 10%decrease in the decline of CDDI-P1T increased the head circumference in the middle pregnancy by 0.200 cm(95%CI:0.016-0.384,P=0.033),and a 100%decrease in the decline increased the head circumference growth rate in the late pregnancy by 0.201 cm/week(95%CI:0.002-0.399,P=0.048).The analysis of the key time window showed that for every 20 nmol/L increase in progesterone during 9.5-13 weeks of pregnancy,the mid-term head circumference increased by 0.035-0.166 cm(Z=2.452-3.517,allP<0.05),and the late-term head circumference increased by 0.767 cm during 9-13 weeks of pregnancy(Z=2.452-3.517,all P<0.05).When progesterone increased during 9.5-10.5 weeks of pregnancy,the growth rate of mid-term head circumference increased by 0.013-0.023 cm/week(Z=2.074-2.243,all P<0.01).When progesterone increased during 8.5-10.5 weeks of pregnancy,the growth rate of late-term head circumference increased by 0.010-0.026 cm/week(Z=2.061-3.137,all P<0.05).Conclusion Progesterone dynamic index is a new sensitive tool for evaluating fetal head circumference development.There is a stage-specific window period for progesterone regulation.9.5-13 weeks of pregnancy is the critical period for progesterone to affect head circumference growth,and 9.5-10.5 weeks of pregnancy is the core window for regulating the growth rate of head circumference.Therefore,it is necessary to combine progesterone dynamic index and time window for individualized intervention to promote the transformation of prenatal care from pregnancy maintenance to eugenics intervention.
10.Analysis of MMPI results in patients with anxious depression or non-anxious depression
Dandan CHENG ; Su HONG ; Xingyue CHEN ; Bing HU ; Xiaying LI ; Bingyang ZHA ; Ziyi YUAN ; Li KUANG
Chongqing Medicine 2025;54(1):52-56
Objective To investigate the differences in personality traits between the patients with anx-ious depression(AND)and non-anxious depression(NAD)in order to provide the possible basis for early find of the patients with AND.Methods A total of 572 adult patients with depression visiting in the psychiatric outpatient department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2022 to December 2022 were selected to conduct the questionnaire survey.General demographic questionnaire,Self-rating Depression Scale(SDS),Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale(GAD-7)and Minnesota Multiphasic Per-sonality Inventory(MMPI)were collected and analyzed.The patients with GAD-7 total score ≥5 points served as the AND group(n=499)and those with GAD total score<5 points served as the NAD group(n=73).The correlation between the general demographic questionnaire,SDS and GAD-7 with MMPI was ana-lyzed.Results There were statistically significant differences in the place of residence,number of children in a family,education years,MMPI total score and high score proportions of psychopathy,athopia,hysteria,depres-sion,hypochondriasis,paranoea,schizophrenia,social introversion and hypomania dimensions between the two groups(P<0.05).The SDS and GAD-7 scores in the AND group were higher than those in the NAD group(P<0.05).The MMPI total score,athopia,hysteria,depression,hypochondriasis,paranoea,schizophrenia,so-cial introversion and hypomania were positively correlated with SDS and GAD-7(P<0.05).Conclusion The patients with depression accompanied by anxiety symptom could be early identified by the MMPI testing results.

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