1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Intervention Strategies for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction Using Combined Classical Formulas Based on the Theory of "Disease of Both Blood and Water"
Yuzhi JIA ; Qingyong HE ; Jie WANG ; Xin ZHAO ; Ziyi WANG ; Dongmei LI ; Junqiao AN
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(4):370-374
Based on the theory of "disease of both blood and water" in Essentials from the Golden Cabinet (《金匮要略》), and in combination with the dynamic syndrome evolution of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), this paper systematically clarifies the pathomechanism of HFpEF, characterized by yang deficiency as the root, blood stasis as the pivotal factor and water retention as the manifestation. Accordingly, the therapeutic principles have been proposed, which are warming yang and banking up original qi to consolidate the root, activating blood and unblocking collaterals to smooth the mechanism, and promoting urination and regulating pivot to remove the branch. On this basis, a compound formula structure of "one monarch, one minister and one assistant" is established, forming an integrated intervention strategy that synergistically combines the three methods of warming yang, activating blood, and promoting urination through combined classical formulas. Zhenwu Decoction (真武汤), which warms yang and dissolves rheum, is used to consolidate the root and directly target the source of yang deficiency, serving as the monarch; Guizhi Fuling Pills (桂枝茯苓丸), which activates blood, promotes urination and unblocks the pivot, assists in interrupting the binding of blood stasis and water retention, serving as the minister; Tingli Dazao Xiefei Decoction (葶苈大枣泻肺汤), which regulates qi, disperses retained fluids, and eliminates the manifestation, alleviates acute water-retention symptoms, serving as the assistant. This compound formula is warming without being drying, diuretic without being drastic, and dispels stasis without consuming blood, thereby achieving the therapeutic effects of warming yang, activating blood, and promoting urination.
3.Association between urinary levels of six per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus
Ziyi LIU ; Luming YAN ; Tingting JIANG ; Yaling LI ; Chao ZHANG ; Jiahu HAO
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):174-181
Background Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can influence gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); however, current studies on their association are limited and have yielded inconsistent findings. Objective To investigate the association between maternal exposure to PFAS, as measured by urinary concentrations in early pregnancy, and the risk of developing GDM. Methods Based on the Wuhu Birth Cohort in Anhui Province conducted between 2020 and 2023, this study included
4.The Potential Role of Immune Checkpoint Molecules in the Pathogenesis of Autoimmune Hepatitis and in Targeted Therapy
Haixia LI ; Aiping TIAN ; Miao XUE ; Ziyi LI ; Xiaorong MAO
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(2):512-518
Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic, immune-mediated liver injury of unknown etiology. The onset of this disease involves the activation and recruitment of diverse immune and non-immune cells, which in turn trigger hepatic damage. Immune checkpoint molecules (ICM) are expressed on the surface of multiple cell types. By regulating cellular functional states, they help limit the intensity and duration of immune responses, thereby preventing excessive inflammation and tissue damage, and maintaining immune homeostasis. In AIH, however, this natural "braking" mechanism is impaired, leading to aberrant activation of both immune and non-immune cells and the breakdown of immune homeostasis. Consequently, ICM are likely to play a critical role in the pathogenesis of AIH. A deeper understanding of the function of ICM in AIH not onlyadvances our insight into the disease mechanism, but also suggests that targeting these molecules may represent a promising therapeutic strategy for the treatment of AIH.
5.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
6.The modern Silk Road spirit leads the “Belt and Road” Initiative to facilitate global tropical disease control programmes
Liying ZHOU ; Xiangjie LI ; Ziyi CHEN
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(3):316-320
The modern Silk Road spirit advocating for win-win cooperative partnerships, aligns with the target of the “Belt and Road” Initiative, which provides new opportunities for collaboration on tropical disease control among countries along the “Belt and Road”. The modern Silk Road spirit may effectively facilitate tropical disease control programmes and improve disease control concepts and approaches through collaborative research, information sharing, infrastructure development, and joint efforts in pharmaceuticals and vaccine development; however, there are still multiple challenges that require to be overcome, including political and cultural differences, and data sharing. Therefore, countries participating in the “Belt and Road” Initiative need to work together with mutual respects, build effective collaborative mechanisms and improve communications to jointly facilitate the sustainable development of global tropical disease control programmes and cultural exchange, so as to contribute to global health and prosperities. This article discusses the contribution of the modern Silk Road spirit to facilitating global tropical disease control programmes in the context of the “Belt and Road” Initiative.
7.Isolation,identification,and biological characterization of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli from a South China tiger
Jing-ru XU ; Zhi-hao ZHU ; Yu-qi LI ; Si-si FAN ; Ya-li KANG ; Yu-bin ZHUO ; Ling-shan HUANG ; Shu-qi QIU ; XUE-YUXI ; Xiao-ping WU ; Yu-ting LIAO ; Wei-ye LIN ; Xiao-ziyi XIAO ; Xue-jin LI ; Teng-teng CHEN ; Xi-pan LIN ; Kai-xiong LIN ; Ke-wei FAN
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses 2025;41(6):567-573
This study was aimed at identifying the pathogenic bacteria responsible for the death of a young tiger at the Fujian Meihua Mountain South China Tiger Breeding Research Institute.Tissue samples from the lungs,liver,and intestines of the deceased tiger were collected,and the bacteria were cultured inasterile environment.The bacterial strains were characterized according to their morphological and molecular biological properties,including assessment of virulence genes and antibiotic resistance genes,mouse lethality tests,and antibiotic susceptibility evaluations.A predominant bacterial strain isolated from the liver of the deceased tiger was identified as enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli(ETEC)strain Tiger22513F.Phylogenetic analysis of the 16S rRNA gene revealed that the Tiger22513F strain exhibited close genetic similarity to the reference strain ETEC(MF919609.1),with 99.9%nucleotide similarity,and resided on the same evolutionary branch.The Tiger22513F strain contained 11 antibiotic resistance genes(tetA,sul1,sul3,cmlA,floR,blaTEM,blaSHV,blaCMY-2,qnrA,qnrS,and qnrD)along with five virulence genes(VT1,fyuA,tsh,iucD,and ST).Mouse lethality tests indicated significant pathogenicity toward mice,affecting primarily the lungs,liver,and intestines.Antibiotic susceptibility testing demonstrated that this strain exhibited resistance to various classes of beta-lactam antibiotics,as well as quinolones and aminoglycosides.This investigation successfully isolated a multi-drug resistant enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli strain with pronounced pathogenicity from the liver of a deceased tiger;thus providing valuable scientific insights for clinical diagnosis,as well as prevention and control measures,against ETEC infections in South China tigers.
8.Monitoring of bacterial contamination of water specimens at different pre-discharge time of flexible endoscopic final rinse water before daily use:a multicenter study
Jing ZHEN ; Liuji CHEN ; Yangyang ZHANG ; Ziyi HUANG ; Haixia LIU ; Xianhuang LI ; Xi HUANG ; Jiuhong MA
Chinese Journal of Infection Control 2025;24(2):236-241
Objective To investigate the bacterial contamination of water specimens at different pre-discharge time of flexible endoscopic final rinse water before daily use,and provide reference basis for choosing the optimal pre-dis-charge time in clinical work.Methods From August to December 2023,the water produced by the purified water equipment of the digestive endoscopy centers of 4 tertiary first-class medical institutions in Jiangxi Province,as well as the final rinsing water at the terminal-point at different pre-discharge times(before pre-discharge,discharge of 1,3,5,and 10 minutes)were subjected to on-site sampling,the collected water specimens were performed microbio-logical cultures by pouring and filter membrane methods,unqualified water specimens were performed bacterial i-dentification.Results 48 specimens of water produced by purified water equipment were collected,with qualified rate of 100%.480 final water specimens were collected,with a qualified rate of 0 before pre-discharge.The quali-fied rates of pre-discharge at 1,3,5,and 10 minutes were 0,21.88%,55.21%,and 73.96%,respectively.Bac-terial colony counts in the final rinse water with different pre-discharge times in 4 medical institutions showed statis-tically significant differences(all P<0.001).As the pre-discharge time increased,bacterial colony counts in the fi-nal rinse water of all four medical institutions showed a decreasing trend.The pairwise comparison of the overall bacterial colony count of the final rinse water at different pre-discharge time showed that there was no statistically significant difference in the bacterial colony count of the final rinse water at 5 and 10 minutes of pre-discharge(P>0.05),while the pairwise comparison between other time points showed statistically significant differences(all P<0.001).Environmental contaminated bacteria such as Micrococcus luteus,Cupriavidus paucula,and Sphin-gononas paucimobilis were detected from the unqualified water specimens.Conclusion With the extension of pre-discharge time,the degree of bacterial contamination in the final rinse water significantly decreases.All levels of medical institutions need to pre-discharge the final rinse water daily,and the pre-discharge time should last for at least 5 minutes.
9.Study on the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality risk in seven provinces of China
Zhiying JIANG ; Ruilin MENG ; Ruoyi ZHANG ; Xuelong GU ; Jianxiong HU ; Min YU ; Yang CHEN ; Chunliang ZHOU ; Biao HUANG ; Ziyi LIANG ; Sujuan CHEN ; Jianhao LI ; Guanhao HE ; Tao LIU ; Hua GUO ; Wenjun MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(4):566-572
Objective:To evaluate the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality.Methods:A total of 61 421 fall-related mortality from 2013 to 2022 in 7 provinces of China were included in a time-stratified case-crossover design, with daily meteorological data derived from the fifth generation European Reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression chimeric distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality and stratified analysis was conducted according to gender and age.Results:Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of fall-related morality. The risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves was higher than during non-heatwave periods ( OR=1.11, 95% CI: 1.05-1.18). The attributable fraction of fall-related motality due to heatwaves was 10.25% (95% CI: 4.49%-15.36%). For each 1 ℃ increase above the heatwave threshold, the risk of fall-related mortality increased by 34% ( OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.02-1.76). The effect of heatwave duration on fall-related mortality was not statistically significant. Stratified analyses indicated that women experienced a higher risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves ( OR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.04-1.22) compared to man ( OR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.04-1.17). Conclusions:Heatwave increases the risk of fall-related mortality, and the intensity of heatwaves modify this risk. Women are vulnerable populations.
10.Ferroptosis and its role in kidney tubular injury in diabetic kidney disease
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2025;41(2):144-153
Ferroptosis is a type of programmed cell death characterised by iron-dependent accumulation of lipid reactive oxygen species, which is closely related to intracellular metabolism of amino acids, lipids, and iron, and regulation of ferroptosis can intervene and treat certain diseases. Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a chronic microvascular complication of diabetes.Although the exact pathogenesis of DKD is not clear, the results of the existing studies have proved that ferroptosis participates in the development of diabetic kidney injury, and plays an important role in kidney tubular injury in particular, and the inhibition of ferroptosis may be one of the directions for the treatment of DKD. In recent years, researchers have conducted a lot of studies on ferroptosis through animal models of DKD, but the specific pathogenesis and therapeutic effects regarding ferroptosis have not been fully revealed. This article introduces ferroptosis and its connection with apoptosis, autophagy and other forms of cell death, as well as the main mechanisms regulating the development of ferroptosis through systematic Xc-GSH-GPX4 axis, NADPH-FSP1-CoQ10 axis, GCH1-BH4- phospholipid axis and various regulatory factors, and provides an overview of its role in kidney tubular injury of DKD. Through the review of these contents, the possibility of ferroptosis as a therapeutic target for DKD is discussed, in order to provide reference for the basic research and clinical treatment of DKD.

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