1.Nomogram model for prognostic prediction in elderly CHF patients based on echocardiography and serology
Zhaomei DENG ; Zhifa DENG ; Lian XU
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases 2024;26(9):997-1001
Objective To construct and validate a nomogram prognostic model for elderly patients with chronic heart failure(CHF)based on echocardiographic parameters and serological indica-tors.Methods A total of 110 elderly CHF patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Chinese Medicine from January 2021 to January 2023 were recruited and randomly divided into a modeling group(80 cases)and a validation group(30 cases).According to the prognosis,the patients in the modeling group were divided into good prognosis subgroup(57 cases)and poor prognosis subgroup(23 cases).Echocardiographic parameters and serological indi-cators were collected to analyze the factors affecting poor prognosis in elderly CHF patients,and then a risk-prediction nomogram model was drawn and verified.Results The patients of poor prognosis had significantly higher values of left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD)and left ventricular end systolic diameter(LVESD)and serum levels of soluble growth stimulation ex-pressed gene 2(sST2),N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)and cardiac tro-ponin T(cTnT),and lower left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)value than the good progno-sis group(P<0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that LVEDD,LVESD,LVEF,sST2,NT-proBNP and cTnT were all factors influencing poor prognosis in elderly CHF patients(P<0.01).The AUC value,sensitivity and specificity of the constructed risk nomogram model based on the above influencing factors were 0.788,83.61%and 80.59%,respectively.Hosmer-Lemeshow test reveal x2=4.115,P=0.894.The results of decision curve analysis(DCA)dis-played that the benefit was higher when the threshold probability ranged from 17%-96%,and the model could select larger range of the threshold probability.Conclusion LVEDD,LVESD,LVEF,sST2,NT-proBNP and cTnT are all associated with poor prognosis in elderly CHF pa-tients.Our risk nomogram model for poor prognosis in elderly CHF patients based on the above factors has good accuracy and discriminability.